Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Monday, February 03, 2025

What's wrong with science

There is no such thing as the "scientific method." Scientists use many different methods,  engage in many different kinds of activities, and ask many different kinds of questions. What defines science might best be characterized as an attitude -- an attitude that is more about what it forbids than what it enables. The scientific attitude is that the only legitimate way to answer any scientific question is to observe reality -- the truth is out there. The ultimate test is that if more and more people follow the same observational procedures, what they see will be the same.


That may strike you as banal, but it was a most uncommon attitude, in fact largely non-existent, for the first 300,000 years or so of the existence of Homo sapiens, and it is still actually fairly uncommon today. A few of the ancient Greeks engaged in what we now call science, but for the most part the Greek philosophers engaged in very different activities. They essentially invented ideas by introspection and imagination, and argued for them on largely esthetic grounds. Thus the universe was made of earth, air, fire and water; or may just air, or just water. Aristotle was fond of what we call teleological explanations -- things are made in a way that serves a purpose. It is the nature of things to want to be in the center of the universe, which also happened to be the center of the earth, which accounts for the downward pressure we call gravity. But it is not the in nature of the celestial spheres to want to be there. Living things are animated by a force that seeks their ends, whatever those may be. 


In Europe a few hundred years later, everybody knew that God made the world, and that the purpose of humans was to worship God, obey his laws, enrich his priests, and serve and obey the nobles who ruled by his divine will. What was known specifically about practical matters was to be found in authoritative ancient texts, including Aristotle and the Roman era Greek physician Galen. As feudalism gave way to nationalism, the imagined community of the nation state gave a new kind of meaning to existence, even as people gained more choice of religions, although not having one at all was not considered a legitimate choice.


A few thinkers who were ahead of their time -- Francis Bacon -- began to express something like the scientific attitude as early as the 17th Century, but it didn't really start to catch on until what we call the Enlightenment of the 18th and 19th Centuries. The word "scientist" was coined by the Cambridge academic William Whewell in the 19th Century. Galileo really did practice science, in the late 16th and early 17th Century, but Isaac Newton, whose lifespan was approximately 80 years later, is credited with being the key figure in the so-called scientific revolution. 


Newton was actually devoutly religious, and after hours he practiced rather mysterious inquiries in alchemy. But he is important because he compartmentalized. When he did science, that's all he did, and what that means is that he did not even try to develop any explanation beyond what he observed. Gravity is an attractive force between two masses which is proportional to their total mass, and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them. That's it. With that equation he could predict the motions of the heavily bodies (elucidated more precisely by Kepler), and the motion of projectiles. He had no idea why this was true, and given that he had no evidence that could bear on the question, he didn't even ask it. 


Einstein later concluded that in fact, massive objects warp space-time, and that this accounts for gravity. However, Einstein did not know, did not speculate, and did not even ask why massive object warp space-time. This is the problem with science -- it does not allow for speculation, for what is called metaphysics, and it doesn't offer any meaning or reasons. To many people, that is not just unsatisfying, it is intolerable. They need meaning, they need reasons, and if they aren't getting it from scientists, they'll get it somewhere else. 


This is a grave challenge, because, while science has given us the technology that doubled our lifespans and lessened our toil, that same technology is threatening to do us grave harm or even destroy us, and the only way out is to believe in the science that tells us so, and wield its power to save our sorry asses. This was not a good time to make a demented criminal lunatic president.

Sunday, February 02, 2025

Sunday Sermonette: More prophesying about what is actually already known

There is some dispute about what Isaiah 41 is actually all about -- it's certainly full of obscure imagery. But I'm still going with my original guess about Deutero  Isaiah -- the writer knows that Cyrus of Persia is about to bump off Babylon and Cyrus has gotten the word to the Jews that he'll restore Judah. I would skip this but some of the verses have inspired many Christian hymns and, again, early Christians appropriated this and misrepresented it as prophesying the coming of Jesus. It doesn't. It's about current affairs in the 7th century BCE.

 

Now that I've gotten this out of the way, I'll return shortly to current affairs in the 21st Century CE.

 

41 “Be silent before me, you islands!
    Let the nations renew their strength!
Let them come forward and speak;
    let us meet together at the place of judgment.

“Who has stirred up one from the east,
    calling him in righteousness to his service[a]?
He hands nations over to him
    and subdues kings before him.
He turns them to dust with his sword,
    to windblown chaff with his bow.
He pursues them and moves on unscathed,
    by a path his feet have not traveled before.
Who has done this and carried it through,
    calling forth the generations from the beginning?
I, the Lord—with the first of them
    and with the last—I am he.”

The islands have seen it and fear;
    the ends of the earth tremble.
They approach and come forward;
    they help each other
    and say to their companions, “Be strong!”
The metalworker encourages the goldsmith,
    and the one who smooths with the hammer
    spurs on the one who strikes the anvil.
One says of the welding, “It is good.”
    The other nails down the idol so it will not topple.

“But you, Israel, my servant,
    Jacob, whom I have chosen,
    you descendants of Abraham my friend,
I took you from the ends of the earth,
    from its farthest corners I called you.
I said, ‘You are my servant’;
    I have chosen you and have not rejected you.
10 So do not fear, for I am with you;
    do not be dismayed, for I am your God.
I will strengthen you and help you;
    I will uphold you with my righteous right hand.

11 “All who rage against you
    will surely be ashamed and disgraced;
those who oppose you
    will be as nothing and perish.
12 Though you search for your enemies,
    you will not find them.
Those who wage war against you
    will be as nothing at all.
13 For I am the Lord your God
    who takes hold of your right hand
and says to you, Do not fear;
    I will help you.
14 Do not be afraid, you worm Jacob,
    little Israel, do not fear,
for I myself will help you,” declares the Lord,
    your Redeemer, the Holy One of Israel.
15 “See, I will make you into a threshing sledge,
    new and sharp, with many teeth.
You will thresh the mountains and crush them,
    and reduce the hills to chaff.
16 You will winnow them, the wind will pick them up,
    and a gale will blow them away.
But you will rejoice in the Lord
    and glory in the Holy One of Israel.

17 “The poor and needy search for water,
    but there is none;
    their tongues are parched with thirst.
But I the Lord will answer them;
    I, the God of Israel, will not forsake them.
18 I will make rivers flow on barren heights,
    and springs within the valleys.
I will turn the desert into pools of water,
    and the parched ground into springs.
19 I will put in the desert
    the cedar and the acacia, the myrtle and the olive.
I will set junipers in the wasteland,
    the fir and the cypress together,
20 so that people may see and know,
    may consider and understand,
that the hand of the Lord has done this,
    that the Holy One of Israel has created it.

21 “Present your case,” says the Lord.
    “Set forth your arguments,” says Jacob’s King.
22 “Tell us, you idols,
    what is going to happen.
Tell us what the former things were,
    so that we may consider them
    and know their final outcome.
Or declare to us the things to come,
23     tell us what the future holds,
    so we may know that you are gods.
Do something, whether good or bad,
    so that we will be dismayed and filled with fear.
24 But you are less than nothing
    and your works are utterly worthless;
    whoever chooses you is detestable.

25 “I have stirred up one from the north, and he comes—
    one from the rising sun who calls on my name.
He treads on rulers as if they were mortar,
    as if he were a potter treading the clay.
26 Who told of this from the beginning, so we could know,
    or beforehand, so we could say, ‘He was right’?
No one told of this,
    no one foretold it,
    no one heard any words from you.
27 I was the first to tell Zion, ‘Look, here they are!’
    I gave to Jerusalem a messenger of good news.
28 I look but there is no one—
    no one among the gods to give counsel,
    no one to give answer when I ask them.
29 See, they are all false!
    Their deeds amount to nothing;
    their images are but wind and confusion.

Footnotes

  1. Isaiah 41:2 Or east, / whom victory meets at every step

 

Friday, January 31, 2025

Epistemology part the ∞

Via Digby, we have this from KFF health news:

 

 

 

So what's going on here? Why would people not believe scientists who work for NIH, the CDC, or the FDA, do believe Donald Trump and Robert Kennedy Junior, and also believe their own doctor? I can guarantee you that at least 95% of the time, when it comes to health issues, their own doctor believes NIH scientists, the FDA and the CDC and does not believe Robert Kennedy Jr., or Donald Trump. 

 

I know this because I know a lot of physicians. I know where they get their health related beliefs, and it's from the same place the scientists (mostly M.D.s) at NIH, FDA and CDC  get theirs. That is peer-reviewed scientific literature, as taught in medical school. 


I'll leave this for now as a puzzle for you to ponder.