Lead and Crime

It seems too pat, too reductionist, but the evidence is very powerful that childhood lead exposure has been the single most powerful driver of crime rates since the early 20th Century. The teevee still leads every night with the most lurid crime stories they can find, so the general public isn't aware of it, but the rates of violent crime, homicide, and burglary have fallen steadily and dramatically in the United States since the 1980s. Furthermore, rates of offending by young people have fallen even more sharply.

Yes, the criminal justice system continues to be racist and highly disproportionate numbers of Black and Hispanic people are incarcerated. But the prevalence of criminal justice involvement, even among minorities, is way down from its peak. This dramatic phenomenon is partly obscured by the continued high arrest and incarceration rates of older men. As Rick Nevin tells us in the linked post, from 1991 to 2013 the juvenile arrest rates fell by 63% for violent crime, and 71% for property crime. This can be entirely explained by exposure to lead from gasoline and paint.

As a sociologist, I have of course been attracted to all of the theories about the effects of poverty and cultural milieus and discrimination and how the removal of jobs from the inner city and the legacy of slavery and the punitive responses of the state and what have you created the school to prison pipeline. And while all those are no doubt exacerbating factors, none of them has been fixed, and yet this miracle has occurred.

There is of course much more to this story. Industries that used lead fought just as hard as the tobacco and fossil fuel industries against the science, and succeeded in continuing to poison children for decades. But courageous scientists persisted and the result is a much better world. Keep that in mind as Republicans continue to inveigh against environmental regulation.  Sometimes it really is just that simple.

From 1991-2013, arrest rates for children under 10 fell by 83% for violent crime and 94% for property crime, and juvenile (under 18) arrest rates fell by 63% for violent crime and 71% for property crime - See more at: http://www.humanimpact.org/from-the-hip-blog/lead-poisoning-and-crime-why-the-pipeline-to-prison-is-running-dry/#sthash.Q10VWmMv.dpufFfr

The crime decline in recent years has been slower than the earlier decline in blood lead because steep arrest rate declines for youths have been partially offset by rising arrest rates for older adults. From 1991-2013, arrest rates for children under 10 fell by 83% for violent crime and 94% for property crime, and juvenile (under 18) arrest rates fell by 63% for violent crime and 71% for property crime, as arrest rates for adults ages 50 and older increased. In absolute terms, the violent crime arrest rate for juveniles was twice the rate for ages 35-49 in 1991, but the juvenile rate was lower in 2013. The property crime arrest rate for children under 10 was about the same as the rate for ages 35-49 in 1991, but the 2013 rate for children under 10 was just 7% of the 2013 rate for ages 35-49. - See more at: http://www.humanimpact.org/from-the-hip-blog/lead-poisoning-and-crime-why-the-pipeline-to-prison-is-running-dry/#sthash.EZIGO3ET.dpuf

The crime decline in recent years has been slower than the earlier decline in blood lead because steep arrest rate declines for youths have been partially offset by rising arrest rates for older adults. From 1991-2013, arrest rates for children under 10 fell by 83% for violent crime and 94% for property crime, and juvenile (under 18) arrest rates fell by 63% for violent crime and 71% for property crime, as arrest rates for adults ages 50 and older increased. In absolute terms, the violent crime arrest rate for juveniles was twice the rate for ages 35-49 in 1991, but the juvenile rate was lower in 2013. The property crime arrest rate for children under 10 was about the same as the rate for ages 35-49 in 1991, but the 2013 rate for children under 10 was just 7% of the 2013 rate for ages 35-49. - See more at: http://www.humanimpact.org/from-the-hip-blog/lead-poisoning-and-crime-why-the-pipeline-to-prison-is-running-dry/#sthash.EZIGO3ET.dpuf

The crime decline in recent years has been slower than the earlier decline in blood lead because steep arrest rate declines for youths have been partially offset by rising arrest rates for older adults. From 1991-2013, arrest rates for children under 10 fell by 83% for violent crime and 94% for property crime, and juvenile (under 18) arrest rates fell by 63% for violent crime and 71% for property crime, as arrest rates for adults ages 50 and older increased. In absolute terms, the violent crime arrest rate for juveniles was twice the rate for ages 35-49 in 1991, but the juvenile rate was lower in 2013. The property crime arrest rate for children under 10 was about the same as the rate for ages 35-49 in 1991, but the 2013 rate for children under 10 was just 7% of the 2013 rate for ages 35-49. - See more at: http://www.humanimpact.org/from-the-hip-blog/lead-poisoning-and-crime-why-the-pipeline-to-prison-is-running-dry/#sthash.EZIGO3ET.dpuf