Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Friday, May 08, 2020

Doing it right . ..

or at least making a responsible effort. Several Republican governors are easing restrictions even though the rate of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is still increasing in their states. And they're doing it with what seems not just a lack of judicious thought, but outright perversity, as in Georgia where the first businesses allowed to open included massage and tattoo parlors, followed in a few days by bars and restaurants. We'll see where that gets them in three or four weeks.

Meanwhile, Connecticut was one of the hardest hit states, because of its proximity to the initial severe outbreak in the eastern New York suburbs. People in Fairfield County take the same train to work in Manhattan as people in New Rochelle, and as a result there was a severe outbreak in western Connecticut before anybody knew what was happening. (And yes, Cuomo and DeBlasio screwed up initially. But they quickly realized their mistake and reversed course. They weren't getting urgent intelligence briefings starting in January either.)

Governor Lamont moved quickly to close non-essential businesses, to order people to work from home where possible, and to impose distancing requirements in essential businesses such as grocery stores. However, he allowed manufacturing to continue, again with safety precautions, and never closed state parks and beaches, again with distancing requirements. In a couple of cases where people weren't following the rules, he closed state parks, but most remained open.

This worked. The outbreak was largely contained to the western half of the state -- here in Windham County we've only had four deaths (all of which I believe were in a nursing home near the Massachusetts border), only three people are currently hospitalized, and and there have been no confirmed cases in the town where I live.  The story in western Connecticut was a lot worse, and the epidemic did spread as far East as the center of the state, in New Haven and Hartford Counties.

Now it's been on the decline for more than two weeks, however. The most important indicator in Lamont's view is  the number of people who are hospitalized. The confirmed case rate is partly a function of how many tests are done, and that's been steadily ramping up. The death rate is a lagging indicator. Although both are also down, the number of people hospitalized is a pretty hard indicator of how many people are getting sick, and it also means that hospital capacity is now adequate.

So he's planning to ease restrictions by May 20, but he has a set of criteria, and he's being transparent about how well we're doing. Here's a slide from the governor's office.



We don't have enough testing available yet, or contact tracing capacity. Protecting vulnerable populations in part means being able to test everybody in nursing homes, health care personnel, and disproportionately affected communities which basically means low income urban areas. That's why that needle is parallel to the testing availability needle. But he hopes to get there by May 20.

Then, however, we're going to do things carefully and smartly. Restaurants will be allowed to have outdoor seating only, with tables at appropriate distance and limitations on party size. Retail businesses that had been closed will have to follow the same guidelines as those that remained open, including limited capacity, distancing and mask wearing. Large gatherings are still prohibited and gyms will not open yet. Distancing at parks and beaches will still be required.

We'll see what happens but since we'll have adequate testing and contact tracing capacity we'll know if we need to reimpose some restrictions. If there is an uptick in infections, we'll know how it happened and be able to make a targeted response. Sure, there's some experimentation involved, we aren't sure what's going to happen, but Connecticut is trying to go about it smartly, informed by science and expertise. That, unfortunately, is not the Republican philosophy of governing.

5 comments:

Don Quixote said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/opinion/us-denmark-economy.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Americans need to divorce themselves completely from their free-market nonsense and capitalism dogma. Capitalism will only work in a world of infinite resources. That ain't this here world.

Case-in-point: buffalo (bison).
Case-in-point: At our current rate of waste, the plastic in the oceans will weigh as much as the fish in the oceans by 2050.
Case-in-point: Haiti's deforestation and the looming cataclysm in the Amazon.

I could go on. What's the point?

Heartless Bastards said...



Many of the working poor that the left purports to champion don't have an income, can't buy food, medicine or pay their mortgage/rent. And a whole lot of them were being told the government will take care of them. Yet, they've seen little unemployment or stimulus payments. They're pretty much fucked.

It's pretty easy to sell Lamont's program to those who are still getting a regular paycheck. To others...not so much.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/rally-planned-today-to-protest-state-shutdown-during-coronavirus-pandemic/2258145/

Cervantes said...

Well now that's just 100% false. The unemployment insurance system was overwhelmed but they've caught up now, including adding a new unemployment insurance program for self-employed/contract workers. There is a moratorium on eviction until August. It's painful to be sure but the state is doing everything it can, and moving toward getting people back to work in a responsible way. Opening restaurants and bars isn't going to do any good if customers are afraid to go there.

Cervantes said...

And if you want to know the full story of what CT is doing for folks you can find it on Congressman Joe Courtney's web page: https://courtney.house.gov/COVID19

Cervantes said...

And on the other hand:

"Republicans were really not happy about passing a $600 per week increase in unemployment benefits, and Republican governors are moving to make it impossible for many people to collect it. As Republican governors reopen their states quickly—more quickly than is safe—they force people back to unsafe jobs, and money is the weapon making it stick. If you can theoretically go back to your job, even if it’s unsafe, then you aren’t eligible for unemployment insurance.

After Ohio encouraged employers to turn in workers who don’t want to go back to unsafe jobs, 600 employers turned in 1,200 workers. (Ohio Democrats countered with a website for workers to report unsafe workplaces.) Iowa similarly has a tip line for employers to call to report reluctant workers, and Alabama’s government has warned people that collecting unemployment rather than going back to an unsafe job is fraud."