Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Monday, March 28, 2022

No, it isn't over

The country as a whole, including apparently the CDC, has decided that the Covid-19 thing is over and done with. The Republicans in congress even insisted on stripping funding for Covid-19 testing and relief from the recent appropriation bill, and the Democrats went along with little protest. 

 

While it is true that most of the country right now is experiencing a lull, there has been a bump up in hospitalizations in Europe. Look at the far right of the chart:

 


 

As you can see the uptick so far is small, but it's just beginning. It's because of the new Omicron BA.2 variant, which is more transmissible than the previously prevalent Omicron variant and can infect people who have had previous infections and vaccination. Again, vaccination greatly reduces the risk of severe disease, bu vaccinated people can still get sick. The virus will continue to mutate, and there is no way to predict whether a future variant will cause more severe illness, or will be even better able to evade prior immunity, but there's no reason to assume it won't do either.


As Katherine J. Wu discusses in The Atlantic, we are totally unprepared for another surge. Not only do we have the political problem that a substantial proportion of the population will refuse to go along with mitigation measures or get vaccinated, we do not have the resources to respond. CDC has also decided that it won't recommend mitigation measures until hospitalizations and deaths are already at a critical level. No, I don't know what will happen, maybe this won't be so bad, or the worst will be localized. But the depth of denial in this country is just terrifying. 


Let me remind you that you want no part of this virus. "Mild disease" now means you don't end up in the hospital, but take it from me, that doesn't necessarily mean it's what you would consider mild. And something like 20-30% of people who get "mild" disease end up with symptoms that last for months, or maybe forever, and recent research finds they have an elevated risk of dying in the next six months. It can really knock the crap out of you. No, it isn't just like the flu.

 

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