Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Saturday, January 20, 2024

Correcting more disinformation

 The gap between Republican blathering and reality is unbridgeable. I'm just going to rip off NPR here.


Experts say New York is not experiencing a crime wave

So is it accurate to say New York in the grips of a crime wave?

Some experts say not at all.

"Putting shooting and homicide crimes into context, we're a much safer city than we were 30 years ago," says assistant professor Christopher Herrmann, a criminologist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. He's formerly with the NYPD and has been studying the city's crime trends for years. Herrmann says last year there were 438 murders; there were nearly 2,000 three decades ago, in 1993.

Ahead of the hearing, Herrmann decided to compare New York City crime rates with rates in Columbus, Ohio, which Congressman Jordan represents. "We see that you're 4.3 times more likely to be killed in Columbus, Ohio, than Manhattan. And you see that 7.3 times as many cars per capita are being stolen in Columbus, Ohio, than in Manhattan."

It's a downward trend that continues for New York. According to NYPD, in March 2023, New York City saw a 26.1% drop in shooting incidents compared to this time last year. And homicides fell by 11.4%.

So why are some New Yorkers alarmed? One reason might be that crimes spiked quite significantly during the pandemic. But Herrmann points out that this was not a phenomenon exclusive to New York. Crime soared across the U.S., especially carjackings. There was also a spike in hate crimes, particularly anti-Asian.

Crime rates, by the way, are also much higher in states of the deep South. Manhattan is one of the safest places to be in the United States. Fact.

 

5 comments:

Frito Bandito said...

If you have one foot on a bed of hot coals and the other in an ice tub....on the average you should be comfortable.

That's kinda what you're doing with this crime stuff. The large urban cities have gotten much much worse.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/memphis-police-chief-under-fire-crime-rates-reach-records

Memphis police chief under fire as crime rates reach records

Cervantes said...

Hmm. Remind me of which party controls the government in Tennessee.

Frito Bandito said...

Tha's just great. We're discussing an issue and that's your response?

You think Memphis is the only city with a crime problem? You wanna divvy it up between who's got more crime ridden cities....red or blue?

Bottom line is you have no real answer.

Cervantes said...

I'd be happy to. Crime rates have been higher in cities than in rural areas for as long as we've been collecting data, and probably as long as there have been cities. But they have been declining, in general, everywhere in the U.S., for 30 years. If you watch Fox News, you will be told the opposite, and you will be told that it is because of "liberal" politicians, prosecutors and judges. Since the first premise is false, the second one is irrelevant. The city with the highest rate of violent crime in the U.S. is St. Louis, MO. The governor of Missouri, Mike Parsons, is a Republican. Springfield, MO happens to have the 11t the highest rate. Of the 20 cities with the highest rates of violent crime, 12 have Republican governors. New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland Oregon, and the other cities Republican politicians like to point to are not among them.

The important point is that crime is declining rapidly in the U.S. and has been since 1990.

"Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded. What’s more, every type of Uniform Crime Report Part I crime with the exception of auto theft is likely down a considerable amount this year relative to last year according to newly reported data through September from the FBI.

Americans tend to think that crime is rising, but the evidence we have right now points to sizable declines this year (even if there are always outliers). The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years."

The president of the United States is Joseph R. Biden.

Frito Bandito said...


Thanks!

I guess it's best to steer clear of large cities. I live in an unincorporated area where there is no police department. Everybody is armed to the teeth, everybody carries a pistol and everyone is polite. Crime is not a problem where I live.

But it worries me for other people who don't have the luxuries I enjoy when it comes to personal safety.