In case you aren't already familiar with the blog of military historian Bret Deveraux, you should be. Here I'm linking to his recent post about the Iran war, which confirms much of my own thinking, but with greater authority and detail. Actually everybody with a whit of common sense can pretty much come to the same conclusions. This is nothing but a catastrophe, particularly for poorer countries -- the U.S. can endure it but the cost to our people is enormous. There's no telling where it will lead, but spiraling refugee crises, China taking advantage of the weakened U.S. military, Russia gaining the upper hand in Ukraine, widening regional conflicts -- all this and more is possible. But nothing good can come of it.
I'm not really sure what I hope for now. It would probably be best for Dump to declare victory and go home, which seems to be percolating as one possibility in his decaying brain. It would be a very bad outcome anyway -- the world would be considerably worse off than it was before -- but at least it wouldn't get much worse than it is already. Alas, most people think that's highly unlikely because just about nobody would buy it as a victory, while Stephen Miller, Pete Hegseth and the Republican senatorial majority can't survive a defeat.
But then what's the next move? As Deveraux and I both are telling you, introducing ground forces, whether just on Kargh Island or in an attempt to capture enough territory along the Strait of Hormuz to eliminate the threat to shipping, would be utter folly. There aren't enough troops to hold even a fraction of the needed territory, and they would just be drone fodder. Actually I foresee a massacre.
Would they pile such insanity on top of their idiocy? You know they just might, and the New York Times will explain why it's necessary.
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