Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

You don't need a weatherman . . .

To know which way the wind blows.

I often maintain that I am reticent to prognosticate. However, the excitement over the "when does the residency end" pool is just too great for me to resist.

So no, I don't think he can survive till the mid-term. One major reason for my conclusion is that he is too ignorant, stupid, and crazy. Actually the stupid and crazy are weirdly intertwined, so it's often hard to know which is really operative in a given brain fart.

The second variable in my equation is the nature of Trumpism. There in fact is no such thing. He managed to sell himself as the champion of disaffected white racists who knew they were mad about something but weren't sure exactly what it was. The only concrete promises he made are either impossible to keep or already totally abandoned. (Yes, we're fine with cutting Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. No, you aren't getting a $35 and hour job in a steel mill.) There is no organization, no movement, and no ideology behind the "movement" Trump claims, but only a bombastic, vulgar and bullying pose. Which means there is no real base and nobody to save him.

Third, it is by now obvious that the campaign was a tool of a hostile foreign power. Some degree of this claim is already publicly established. Whether Cheeto Benito was really involved, or is just a dupe, is not entirely clear. I think he kind of knew what was going on, or was at least exposed to the information, wasn't really an active participant, but didn't think it was any sort of a problem. Oh, we're getting help from my friend Vlad? That's nice.

Whether the Republicans in congress would ever find the cojones to impeach him I don't know, but a totally ineffective presidency will not be helpful in advancing their incredibly unpopular legislative agenda. So yes, I think they'll find a way to push him out. But the wreckage from this catastrophe will endure for decades.


Anonymous said...

He managed to sell himself as the champion of disaffected white racists...

About 63 million US citizens or so voted for President Trump, roughly half of the total votes case in the election.

Yet, you're implying that all of those voters have outlier views about race. Statistically that's impossible.

Either that or you think half the country are simply horrible, horrible people.

Which is it?

Radix said...

To Anonymous: Of course at least half of the country (including you) is racist. But institutionalized racism is impossible to point out to the racists. It's like telling a fish, "You swim in WATER." The fish (assuming he can talk) says, "What's water?" It's all he knows.

Most people are spiritually asleep, and limited or very black-and-white in their thinking. You are in that number :-)

Anonymous said...

Of course at least half of the country (including you) is racist.

Your definition of 'racist' must be a very broad one, indeed, to indict half the population of the US. The sheer numbers of voters for Trump give their political viewpoints legitimacy. They are mainstream, like it or not. Saying differently doesn't change the bell curve.

I always have to remind myself that the term 'racist' used as an epithet is fluid in its use to accommodate the situation at hand. In this instance, it's to denigrate anyone who didn't vote for your preferred presidential candidate. Once forced to define it, the other side can point out dozens of 'racist' policies of both government and liberal policies. So, few are inclined to offer up a concrete definition.

If you might wonder why no one cares that you call them names like 'racist', it's because you're the boy who cries 'wolf' at every turn.

Anonymous said...

That ~50% includes two other groups who don't necessarily fit the broad definition of racist. They are those who:

1) Vote for the "R", not the person. (Maybe 30%)

2) Believed that Hillary was as evil as the Antichrist, if not the Antichrist.
(Also, can you spell 'sexist'?)

No, THREE groups! And those who got a little nudge from all of the above.

No, no, FOUR groups! Those who decide based on their friends' opinions.

Maybe I have groups three and four in the wrong order.

Anonymous said...

So no, I don't think he can survive till the mid-term.

I have a friend that said pretty much the same thing. He wanted to make a tattoo bet that Trump would not serve out his four year term. Winner gets to choose a tattoo for the loser. I initially did not take him up on it.

The next day, I texted him and offered up a $300 bet that Trump would, indeed, serve out his term. My friend would not accept. He said his hate got in the way of his better judgement on the previous day.

He cited that no president has ever been removed from office and only one had resigned in all of American history.

And he's right. Trump will serve at *least* one term. Thinking otherwise is allowing your hate to get in the way.