Via Brad DeLong, an analysis of archaeological data that shows a sharp rise in living standards (PDF) in the Roman Empire around Year 1, followed by the well known decline and fall and the long languishment of the Dark Ages. Author Willem Jongman offers no particular explanation for the rise, and he rather lamely blames the fall on the Antonine plague and climate change. In any case, I draw attention to this because it is the only strong precedent for the astonishing developments of the past two and a half centuries.
While many people do still live at a bare subsistence level, that was the norm for the vast majority of humans until something a bit mysterious happened around the late 18th Century. Now it is no longer the norm in most of the world and in fact the typical human in the U.S. and Western Europe enjoys a standard of living, a life expectancy and standard of health that the kings and emperors of the 18th Century would envy, in fact could not have imagined. That we achieve this by consuming the carrying capacity of the earth, sea and atmosphere, and will soon hit a wall at 100 mph we will leave aside for now. The anomaly itself is what I want to discuss.
Whatever led to the Roman abundance, it wasn't much to do with technology. The major technologies of iron, domesticated horses, and Mediterranean navigation preceded the Romans. It was something about their social organization. They did have entrepreneurship, factories, a form of capitalism if you like, but that was also not unprecedented. In any case the Industrial Revolution was a wholly new phenomenon, a sudden onset, steadily accelerating explosion of productive technology. By now the pace of invention and the constant churn of change is part of the fabric of our lives. We take it for granted. Fears that "future shock" would overwhelm us seem to have been misplaced. We live with this as the norm and we hear cries of alarm when it seems it might be slowing down.
Many are skeptical that this constitutes "progress." We lose a lot along with what we gain, and whether the direction is all good is a subjective question. I'm happy to discuss and argue about that. But what I want today is just to ask us to stop taking it for granted. Step back and look at it. Try to understand it, and all its implications. Ponder how very strange this era is in history, for better or for worse, and what its end may be like.
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People in the U.S. live in a loud, noisy, quick-fix world where talk is cheap and abundant. Most do not see the wall coming, and it's a really hard fuckin' rain that's gonna fall. The end of oil (which you've been noting, for years), the end of abundant, clean water and air, the ascent of tyrants and frauds facilitated by religious zealots and greed-mongers. The end of attainable peace.
We can still save it. But the sheep have to look up.
We could be living in a paradise if that mattered more to people than greed and self-centredness. The whole world needs Twelve Step meetings, or something just as real.
I discuss this with a colleague. We have decided that it will be good to know a variety of people when that hard rain falls: hunters (real hunters, not just partiers), gardeners (food and flowers, because flowers will be important for pollinators), a blacksmith, people with strong mechanical skills, for starters.
Have books on a variety of subjects, to be read in the light of solar powered fixtures when the grid goes away.
Learn the best way to purify water.
Skill will be the currency.
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