Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Thursday, June 04, 2020

Thinking of buying a gun, are you?

It's well established that firearm ownership is a risk factor for suicide. In fact it increases the risk by about three times according to the best previous estimate. Actually it is clear that you're far more likely to shoot yourself than you ever are to use a firearm in self-defense. But it's hard to establish the true magnitude of a risk in the population, especially when there are so many other factors to consider. Previous studies have had limitations that impede confident generalization.

Well, researchers have now published a study using a huge prospective cohort, with 12 years of follow-up. That's a powerful design. In California, all lawful transfers of firearms must be made through a licensed dealer. This includes gifts and private sales. Obviously some people acquire guns illegally but it's presumably a relatively small number and that doesn't really affect any conclusions about legal gun transfers. So the researchers had a complete record of every time somebody in California legally acquired a gun. They also had access to the California voter registration database, which enumerates every adult known to be alive in California (presumably not including undocumented people, again largely beside the point) and it shows when people leave the state and move in. And of course they had access to death certificates.

They followed more than 26 million people for an average of almost seven years. I won't go into the details of the analysis but they accounted for as many potential confounders as they could. Of people who had not previously owned a gun, the rate of suicide by firearm was 8 times as high among those who acquired one as among those who did not. The rate of suicide among women who acquired a gun was 35 times as high. Rates of suicide by other methods were similar among gun owners and non-gun owners: gun suicide was not replacing other methods. They answer other possible objections but you can read it yourself if you are determined not to believe this. They conclude:

[G]eneralizability outside California is unknown. California has stricter gun laws than many other states, including universal background checks, a waiting period, and various prohibitions on firearm purchasing by people with severe mental illness.58 Our results may underestimate the association between handgun ownership and suicide in states without such safeguards.


Fifty-nine people were killed in the mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017, the deadliest in U.S. history. Approximately the same number die each day in the United States from suicide by firearm. Many of these deaths are preventable. Our study bolsters and extends the message from previous research: ready access to firearms, particularly handguns, is a major risk factor for suicide. Health care providers and policymakers should be aware of this risk. This information is also important for current and prospective firearm owners seeking to weigh the risks and perceived benefits of ownership.

Yo, Peckerhead, I encourage you to purchase a firearm. You might consider the Sig Sauer catalogue.  

I recommend the RXP 320 Full Sized, which offers a smooth, crisp trigger to make any shooter more accurate, an intuitive, 3-point takedown and unmatched modularity to fit any shooter and any situation. Its full-size frame is ideal for target shooting, home defense and any scenario where shootability and sighted accuracy are of the highest priority now joined with a 6MOA SLIDE MOUNTING OPTIC. This modular, striker-fired pistol features a full-size grip, full length slide, ROMEO1 PRO, and Suppressor Height Contrast Sights. Available in 9mm. Safety features include a striker safety, disconnect safety. 

You should also consider buying the Speer Gold Dot LE Duty 9mm Luger Ammo 147 Grain Jacketed Hollow Point ammo. 

I don't think this will be of much use to you hunting deer or turkey, but I guarantee you if you want to kill the demons living in your head, it will be 100% effective.

1 comment:

Don Quixote said...

The statistic regarding daily suicides by firearm in the U.S. is shocking when placed side-by-side with the 201 Vegas killing, which was, after all, also in one day.

I think we often forget that epidemics aren't just in the form of microbes and viruses. Gun violence, child abuse, sexual abuse, and untreated mental illness are also of epidemic proportions in the U.S.