Autocracy

A couple of weeks ago I was talking with a relative about Ukraine. By then it was already apparent that the invasion was a disaster for Russia. Their military was exposed as utterly incompetent, NATO and nations friendly to NATO had united to isolate Russia and its economy was cratering. My friend was convinced that Putin would be deposed in the very near future and the junta that replaced him would put an end to the debacle. I told him that I had thought that was possible earlier on but it hadn't happened yet and I didn't think it was likely after all.

 

Well, it still hasn't happened. A few mid-level officials have dissented, but they didn't try to organize a coup, they fled the country. (And presumably they're checking their tea and their underwear regularly for exotic neurotoxins.) Apparently a couple of generals have been cashiered and the Defense Minister has disappeared. But the military is still following Putin's orders, no matter how idiotic or depraved. 

 

To those of us who study or think we understand politics in countries with functioning electoral systems, or even the authoritarian regimes that they sometimes slip in and out of, this is difficult to understand. Xi Jinping's hold on power is understandable, because China has remained economically prosperous. The political and economic elites benefit from his rule while the ordinary people have their bread and circuses. But if you remember some history, Mao led China through multiple disasters, including famine and the collapse of civil society, but his hold on power remained ironclad. Hitler held absolute power until the Soviet and allied troops were within hours of grabbing him like a wishbone.

In other words these regimes don't work like the polities we understand. The reason Putin's orders are still obeyed and he still sleeps in his bed (albeit likely restlessly) is that the ruling circle is interlocked by terror. Whoever is the first to dissent will pay with his life or at least his freedom. They have no secure channel to conspire in secret, and even if they did, no-one dares be the first to suggest it and find he has misjudged his interlocutor. There is a palace guard that depends for its privileges and the enjoyment of existence on unquestioned loyalty. And these people are all psychopaths who don't give a rat's ass about the Russian or Ukrainian people. 

Yes, there are soldiers in the field who have deserted and probably many who have been shot for trying it. The infantry has little will to fight, and this is one reason why the Russian army has been so ineffective. (Corruption and the elevation of incompetent loyalists are also important factors. ) The regime could still reach a critical point and collapse but I wouldn't bet on it happening any time soon. Nevertheless this horrific situation does reveal the inherent weakness of autocracy. Nobody will tell Putin anything he doesn't want to hear, and so the regime makes disastrous decisions based on false information. But that happened to Mao and it happened to Hitler, and they held on to power.