Really, really hard times

I'm reading Epidemics and Society by Frank M. Snowden. (Plagues and People's, which I discussed here a long while back, was taken. That book, by William McNeill, was first published in 1076. It essentially sets out on the same endeavor, to tell the story of the impact of epidemics on history. Snowden, quite churlishly in my view, does not acknowledge it.)

There's been a lot of hardship in various times and places in our age. World War II was the worst thing to happen in the past 100+ years, but many other much more localized disasters were really awful, for much smaller numbers of people. But the Black Death -- which officially lasted about seven years, from 1347, but was followed by outbreaks of plague at various places in Europe for two centuries -- was probably worse. It is believed to have killed from 1/3 to 1/2 of the population of Europe, and it was about as terrible a way to go as you can imagine. The rupture in society was probably the most profound in history within such a short time.*

We've had a few pandemics in my time, of which HIV was probably the most consequential for society long term. The current unpleasantness affected far more people directly, but may blow over without leaving any strong traces. We'll see. But in any case the toll of morbidity and mortality from emerging infectious diseases in modern times hasn't been anything remotely approach the Black Death. Actually the plague bacillus is still around (see footnote) but only rarely causes trouble because we understand it, and we know how to prevent and treat it. We figured out HIV prevention fairly quickly, and treatment about 20 years later, and we figured out Covid prevention within 18 months. Neither posed nearly the scale of risk of the plague in the first place.

So we'd like to think that nothing like the Black Death can happen again,we know enough now to respond effectively to whatever comes along. But I'm not so sanguine, especially given rampant denial of scientific reality by people who are only seeking political and monetary gain. That's the really bad news about the present age.

 * In case you didn't know it's caused by a bacterium, Yersina pestis, which entered European populations via  ship born rats, transmitted to humans by flea bites. It can also be transmitted from human to human via fleas, and via respiratory droplets.