Some thoughts on where we are with Covid-19

I hesitated to show you this graphic because it might lead to unwarranted complacency, but I'll show it to get it over with and then discuss. (Source: Worldometer)

 

 

Basically, the death rate has held pretty steady since last April, at around 400 a day. That's obviously well below the previous peaks, but I don't think people would tolerate it from any other readily preventable cause. However, deaths are a lagging indicator and the CDC is reporting a widespread increase in cases around the country. 

 

Again, not a major spike like last March but we don't know where it's going yet. New strains are highly transmissible and we get little protection from previous infections. Furthermore, it's now clear that something like 6-10% of people who have even mild cases have long-term symptoms, which can be disabling. There are indications that the virus attacks the immune system and can cause depletion of T cells which also makes people more susceptible to other viruses as well as re-infection with Covid-19.

This is not "just the flu." It's a lot worse. Political leaders want to pretend its over, and so do most people, and that's what they're doing. I know that people are tired of it and they find mitigation measures at the very least annoying, although I think more extreme reactions are not really rational. But very few people have gotten the latest booster, which is really depressing. It costs nothing, in my case at least it barely even hurts, and it can save your life. If more people would avoid crowded indoor spaces and wear a mask when they do enter them, it would slow transmission further which would also slow the rate of viral mutation. 

In other words it's all synergistic. Faster spread leads to even faster spread, because cases grow exponentially. More cases mean more opportunity for mutation. More reinfections mean more compromised immune systems. Getting the reproductive rate down to 1 means the epidemic doesn't grow, and getting it below 1 means it declines. So every small change, in either direction, builds on itself. What we do now has multiplicative effects in the future. The only way out of this is to make an effort. There may be good news on the immunization front  coming down the road, but don't count on it. Even if that does happen, it might be too late for you or somebody you care about, and even a whole lot of people you don't know, but you should still care.