More on the problem of democracy

 I'm going to defer the Bible study for a bit, because we have some important matters to discuss.

UPDATE: Apparently, they realized they'd gone too far, and rescinded the funding freeze. I'm not sure what this means for the longer term, but it does appear there are some limits still. We'll see.

UPDATE OF THE UPDATE: Apparently they rescinded the memo, but they didn't rescind the action, whatever that means.

First, please look at the commenting rules in the sidebar -- you can't comment as anonymous or unknown, you need to choose a handle and stick to it. Even if your comment is astute, amusing or even brilliant I won't publish it unless you put forth an identity. Rules are rules.

I obviously can't get inside the minds of people who voted for Cheeto Benito. The various anecdotes we've seen of people explaining themselves basically say they're ignorant idiots. I know that telling them that is not a good strategy for persuasion, so I'm not proposing that Democratic politicians say that. What is relevant is that those reasons, however misinformed and misguided, very likely did not include the expectation of what has happened in the past week. People have a tremendous capacity for retrospective self-justification, so likely most MAGA voters will give you an argument why they're in favor of it. They won't notice that the price of eggs has actually gone up.

I don't know, as of January 29, where this is all going, but let me tell you the immediate effect on my workplace. Actually I'm semi-retired, and the funding I do have is private, so I'm not directly affected. However, in case you didn't know it, the entire university-based  biomedical and public health research enterprise is at least 90% dependent on federal funding. The bulk comes from NIH, but there is also the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), the National Science Foundation, Advanced Research Projects agency, CDC which funds some extramural research and demonstration projects, and other pockets -- even NASA and the military. 

This doesn't just pay for the conduct of research, but for the training of students, post-doctoral fellows and junior faculty. People setting out to make a career in science are utterly dependent on federal funding. In fact, a specific requirement for getting a faculty appointment in most cases (I was an exception) is what's called a "K" award, a training grant from NIH. As currently structured, medical schools and schools of public health are entirely non-viable without federal funding. It pays much of the salaries of faculty, so-called indirect costs in federal contracts pay for the building, it supports the students. Without it the entire enterprise would collapse.

So we have an interruption in that funding. We don't know for how long, and we don't know what's going to happen next. But it has some powerful immediate effects. It means the schools are spending money that isn't being reimbursed. It means that careers are on hold and staff may have to be laid off. It's rather complicated, but since research grants are always time-limited there is constant turnover in the projects to which research assistants, data analysts and project directors are assigned. As current grants run out they depend on new ones coming in to keep their jobs. Same goes for research faculty, of course.

 

That means that right now, as some current projects are running out, and expected grants aren't coming in, the research infrastructure is deteriorating.  This started right away, and it's going to get worse as the days and weeks go on. It's real damage that will take considerable time to repair, if it can be done at all. If the money doesn't start coming in soon, it's going to create spreading economic damage. The local restaurants will feel it immediately, but eventually it will ripple out to the entire regional economy.

Now think about all the other streams of federal funding that have been blocked. Road and bridge projects, municipal construction (my town has a federal grant to restore the town hall, for example), Head Start programs, substance abuse treatment, public health programs, on and on -- all of these employ people and that means they don't just accomplish their immediate goals, they support the families of workers and put money into communities. A lot of people who voted for Trump are going to be hurt badly, in fact some of them already have been. The possibility looms of economic catastrophe, although stock market investors don't seem to have noticed yet. 

I'm eagerly waiting to see how people are going to react to this.