Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

We take requests

Someone is interested in laws regarding vaccination in the United States. There is often a tension between the liberty interest and social welfare in public health, at least from many people's perspective. It is a general principle that competent adults cannot be compelled to undergo any medical procedure against their will. Adults can decide to check out of the hospital against medical advice, or to treat their cancer with coffee enemas rather than surgery and chemotherapy, and the state does not get involved. As for people who are ruled not competent, that's a whole other discussion, but I will point out that a judge has to make the ruling; psychiatrists can't just do it by themselves.

Vaccination is a different matter for two reasons. First, we are talking for the most part about children. While laws, precedents and practices vary somewhat among the states, generally speaking parents can be compelled to allow essential medical treatment for their children, and may be prosecuted for neglect if they do not. There is ample precedent for compulsion to overrule even religious belief in this regard.

However, because not getting your children vaccinated is not under most circumstances immediately life threatening, the states do not directly compel it under normal circumstances. Rather, they require vaccination for school attendance, the rationale being more that it is about the protection of others rather than protection of the subject child. And most states allow religious and/or personal belief exemptions, which makes this more of a suggestion than a requirement. The map below is a couple of years old and some states may have changed their laws since, but it gives the general idea.



So only California, Mississippi and  West Virginia (perhaps surprisingly) do not allow any non-medical exemptions. There isn't really any difference between religious and personal belief exemptions because all you have to do in either case is assert that you have such a belief.

In the case of the recent measles outbreaks in New York, the Public Health Commissioner declared a public health emergency and required  everyone -- adults and children -- who lives or works in the affected zip codes to be vaccinated, subject to a $1,000 fine. I don't know what the law is regarding such measures in other states but the courts have generally held that state authorities have very broad authority to protect public health under the police power. This includes measures such as isolation and quarantine which are even more coercive than requiring vaccination, which in fact constitutes an extremely low risk which is far outweighed by the benefits. That's the scientific truth, and people who don't believe it are simply wrong. It is not subject to debate by reasonable people.

I don't know what your average libertarian thinks about this but I expect most of them do not want to be exposed to infectious diseases. The measles vaccine is highly effective, but vaccines in general are less than 100% effective so you need to vaccinate almost everyone to achieve "herd immunity." That means that the infectious agent cannot spread because it will not encounter long enough chains of transmission. And, since some people cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, they will be at risk due to the indefensible decisions of others who decline to be vaccinated.






Monday, April 08, 2019

The 4.2 kiloyear event

The title of this post is the weird name scientists have given to a prolonged drought that devastated the tropics, probably worldwide, beginning about 2,200 BC. Wikipedia says it may have lasted for the entire century, but some estimates have it considerably shorter, maybe 30 years. Anyway, that was enough. Important civilizations collapsed, including the Egyptian Old Kingdom and the Akkadian empire in Mesopotamia.

You may be struck by the omission in the Wikipedia article of any discussion of the cause. That is because the cause is unknown. One hypothesis is that it resulted from a meteorite strike, although the mechanism would be unclear. I'm surprised, actually, that there isn't more consternation about the mystery of the cause. Some doubt that a single global event really happened, and argue that more localized and temporally limited events have been conflated.

In any case, that a prolonged drought did occur in Egypt, resulting in reduced flow of the Nile and severe food shortages, is incontrovertible. Perhaps you are thinking that this event was the inspiration for the story of Joseph, that we have just read. If it is in any way, that just highlights the fictitious nature of the story. The Pharaoh at that time was Pepi II. The drought continued throughout his reign, but he did not consolidate power as a result. On the contrary, the kingdom went into decline and collapsed completely after his death, disintegrating into local fiefdoms. After a prolonged period of civil war, Egypt was reunified some 200 years later. So, the story of the captivity which follows the death of the unnamed Pharaoh in the story of Joseph is impossible. Pepi's immediate successor only lasted 1 year; a series of similarly short and obscure reigns was followed by the interregnum.

For us, of course, the lesson is that abrupt climate change can bring about the collapse of civilizations. We don't know why the 4.2 kiloyear event happened, but we do know the consequence. 




Sunday, April 07, 2019

More administrative statements

I have started posting again on another of my blogs, Windham County. It's more personal and located in my own space and time. I'm going to try to post at least a couple of times a week, so check it out if you think you might be interested.

I have stopped posting on Today in Iraq and Afghanistan for now. During the height of the U.S. war in Iraq, it was a high-traffic blog, in the blogroll on Eschaton and Riverbend (now also defunct) and many other popular sites, and I got comments and e-mails from Pentagon and State Department officials, Iraqi politicians and activists, and links from all over. Well, U.S. forces are still in both those countries but nobody seems to care any more. My yelling at clouds from that blog wasn't changing anything. If I recover the energy I'll start up again, but I can't foresee when that might be.

I do indeed have a consistent policy on comments. I don't have time or frankly the inclination to refute every logical fallacy, factual error and offensive personal insult that people try to post here. So they go into the trash. Obviously, people who try to post comments in those categories don't think that's what they are doing, so they may see me as discriminating based on disagreement with me. No, I don't. I can be wrong and I've made mistakes and I don't mind somebody pointing them out. There are also intellectually defensible arguments for conclusions I don't share, and I will entertain them. But I'm trying to maintain a reasonable level of discourse here and if I don't think that includes your comment and  you can't see why, get your own blog.

Sunday Sermonette: We have read a book

Herewith Genesis comes to an end.

Joseph threw himself on his father and wept over him and kissed him. Then Joseph directed the physicians in his service to embalm his father Israel. So the physicians embalmed him, taking a full forty days, for that was the time required for embalming. And the Egyptians mourned for him seventy days.

 There's evidently some mystical significance to "40 days" in the Bible. In one version of the Noah story, it rained for 40 days and 40 nights. (In another version, it was 150 days, but who's counting?) In a while we'll see Moses spending 40 days on the mountain in a cloud. After he got the Ten Commandments, he didn't eat or drink for 40 days. Goliath presented himself 40 days. Ezekiel lay on his side for 40 days. (Really! Bedsores.) There are many other examples, the most famous being Jesus spending 40 days in the wilderness being tempted by the devil and of course ascending into heaven 40 days after the resurrection. Dunno what it's all about.
 
When the days of mourning had passed, Joseph said to Pharaoh’s court, “If I have found favor in your eyes, speak to Pharaoh for me. Tell him, ‘My father made me swear an oath and said, “I am about to die; bury me in the tomb I dug for myself in the land of Canaan.” Now let me go up and bury my father; then I will return.’”
Pharaoh said, “Go up and bury your father, as he made you swear to do.”
So Joseph went up to bury his father. All Pharaoh’s officials accompanied him—the dignitaries of his court and all the dignitaries of Egypt— besides all the members of Joseph’s household and his brothers and those belonging to his father’s household. Only their children and their flocks and herds were left in Goshen. Chariots and horsemen[a] also went up with him. It was a very large company.
10 When they reached the threshing floor of Atad, near the Jordan, they lamented loudly and bitterly; and there Joseph observed a seven-day period of mourning for his father. 11 When the Canaanites who lived there saw the mourning at the threshing floor of Atad, they said, “The Egyptians are holding a solemn ceremony of mourning.” That is why that place near the Jordan is called Abel Mizraim.[b]
12 So Jacob’s sons did as he had commanded them: 13 They carried him to the land of Canaan and buried him in the cave in the field of Machpelah, near Mamre, which Abraham had bought along with the field as a burial place from Ephron the Hittite. 14 After burying his father, Joseph returned to Egypt, together with his brothers and all the others who had gone with him to bury his father.
15 When Joseph’s brothers saw that their father was dead, they said, “What if Joseph holds a grudge against us and pays us back for all the wrongs we did to him?” 16 So they sent word to Joseph, saying, “Your father left these instructions before he died: 17 ‘This is what you are to say to Joseph: I ask you to forgive your brothers the sins and the wrongs they committed in treating you so badly.’ Now please forgive the sins of the servants of the God of your father.” When their message came to him, Joseph wept.
18 His brothers then came and threw themselves down before him. “We are your slaves,” they said.
19 But Joseph said to them, “Don’t be afraid. Am I in the place of God? 20 You intended to harm me, but God intended it for good to accomplish what is now being done, the saving of many lives. 21 So then, don’t be afraid. I will provide for you and your children.” And he reassured them and spoke kindly to them.
22 Joseph stayed in Egypt, along with all his father’s family. He lived a hundred and ten years 23 and saw the third generation of Ephraim’s children. Also the children of Makir son of Manasseh were placed at birth on Joseph’s knees.[c]
24 Then Joseph said to his brothers, “I am about to die. But God will surely come to your aid and take you up out of this land to the land he promised on oath to Abraham, Isaac and Jacob.” 25 And Joseph made the Israelites swear an oath and said, “God will surely come to your aid, and then you must carry my bones up from this place.”
26 So Joseph died at the age of a hundred and ten. And after they embalmed him, he was placed in a coffin in Egypt.

Footnotes:

  1. Genesis 50:9 Or charioteers
  2. Genesis 50:11 Abel Mizraim means mourning of the Egyptians.
  3. Genesis 50:23 That is, were counted as his

I don't have any particular commentary on this. It's just the end of the story. I will say however, that if what they really want is to live in Canaan they can just go and do it now. What are they waiting for? The famine is evidently over.  But then we couldn't have the next story.

Friday, April 05, 2019

More Soshulisum

I mentioned in an addendum to my previous post on this word that the U.S. is in fact already a socialist country, it's just a matter of what we do and do not socialize. You don't have to take my word for it:

“The roads hold such a special position in our brain that we use logic around them that we would never use around everything else,” [Prof. Michael] Manville said.
Other countries have socialized health care, parental leave or housing, Jeffrey Tumlin, a transportation consultant at Nelson\Nygaard, pointed out. In America, we’ve socialized driving — and housing for our cars.
“We don’t let people put their self-storage containers in public parks, but it’s just fine to store their cars on other public land for free,” Mr. Tumlin wrote in an email. . . .
Industry publications [in the 1930s] linked the need for “free” roads to patriotism, the Bill of Rights, even the Minutemen.
Today, because most people seldom pay directly for roads — or because general funds do — it can seem as if no one does.
In other words, we think of socialism as freedom in the case of highways. But in this particular case it doesn't work well in major cities because it leads to overuse and congestion. However, different markets work in different ways. We don't think of education as being overused -- we want all children who have the basic intellectual capacity to at least get a basic education and be prepared for employment. In health care, because of provider induced demand, we get overuse with a fee for service system.

Socializing health care -- or at least health insurance, we're really talking about a Canadian system in which providers are still private operators --  is a way to reduce overuse and yes, make everybody more free. Let's link free health care to patriotism, the Bill of Rights, and the Minutemen.

Update: Comment thread from Lawyers, Guns and Money

  • Avatar
    I've been having a discussion on my own blog about socialism as a dirty word. It's unbelievable how obtuse people can be about this. "Socialism means Stalinism, therefore if you advocate something that I want to label as socialist (or that you so label yourself) you want us to all live in the Soviet Union, because that's what socialism means." They can't be made to see that this is not an argument. Just like the guy who claimed that the concept of "organic food" is meaningless because organic means carbon compounds and all food is carbon compounds.
    Avatar
    The Nazis used the word "socialist" too. Anyone can take a word and mis-use it. And anyone can take something too literally on purpose to make it ridiculous. Do people who do this think they are super clever?
    Avatar
    "Just like the guy who claimed that the concept of "organic food" is meaningless"
    I wouldn't say it is a meaningless concept, just a grossly mis-named one.
    "It's unbelievable how obtuse people can be about this..."
    Most are just trolling, how the RW in this country use and used the word "socialism" bears very little relationship to how anyone else uses and defines it.
    It encompasses most everything everyone else has called socialism and quite about more covering everything from
    "zoning laws I don't like"
    to
    "safety regulations I don't like"
    to
    "government provided garbage pickup"
    to
    "Welfare" (as defined by them)
    to
    you get the idea
    So since Socialism=Stalinism, therefore the law requiring you to buy liability insurance when you buy a car is Stalinism and un-American.

Tuesday, April 02, 2019

Administrative announcements

I would prefer that commenters adopt a consistent handle -- could be their real name or a pseudonym, but it would be best if we keep personae straight.

In general, I publish comments if they constitute a substantive contribution to a discussion or to general knowledge. Occasionally, I allow a comment through in order to use it as an illustration of logical fallacy or inappropriate behavior. Obviously commenters won't like it when that happens, but they probably wouldn't like it either if I didn't publish it at all. Best solution: don't offer fallacious or offensive comments.

I also may decline to publish something just because it is wildly off topic. But I might allow something off topic if it's sufficiently interesting in its own right and/or the post topic is whimsical.

I would prefer not to moderate comments at all, as indeed I did not over more than a decade of maintaining this blog, but it became necessary. The offenders brought it on themselves.

Update: The problem with "Anonymous" as a handle, even if you use it consistently, is that  other people may  use it as well, so we can never be sure it's the same person.

Note: In response to an inquiry, it is indeed true that the British National Health Service is currently under serious strain and that there are long waits for elective procedures. That is because the Tory government has been starving the service of funding. Obviously, if you have a taxpayer supported system government has to be willing to spend enough money for it to function well. That said, the Brits are still better off than they would be without it because they can still buy private health care services if they want to and they can afford it. Take away the NHS, and people who can't afford it would have no health care at all.  Elect a Labor government, and the problem will be solved.