The current crude oil futures contract for Feb. 2024 . . .

 is $75.18. The price for Feb. 2027 is $67.97. Moron.

By way of explanation, I've been suffering from a barrage of would-be commenters claiming that the reason for high gas prices is that Joe Biden cancelled the Keystone X pipeline and arctic oil leases. As I noted in an earlier post, the price of gas has been rising since mid-2020, and it continued after Biden took office at about the same rate. The reason is that production has not kept up with increasing demand since the pandemic low point, exacerbated by the recent Ukraine crisis. As I pointed out, traders buy oil to sell now, not two or six years in the future.

I was then peppered with idiotic comments to the effect that I don't know what I'm talking about, because:

1) Until 2021 we were energy independent.

I explained why that's dumb in a front page post. The U.S. is still a next exporter of petroleum products, but they're sold on a global market so we have to pay the same price everybody else does.

2) Yabbut there are ways that the administration could increase oil production if they wanted to.

I ignored this because it isn't true. Petroleum is extracted in the U.S. by private corporations. As far as I know right now they're pretty much pumping at capacity but if they aren't, there's nothing Joe Biden can do about it because this is a capitalist economy.

3) Incomprehensible gibberish.

Also ignored.

4) Yabbut there are futures contracts for oil.

Well yes, but what does that have to do with it? Buying a futures contract is not the same thing as buying oil, because in the latter case you actually own the goo and you either have to store it or sell it, and obviously what you're going to do is sell it now. If you think the price will go up in the future you might buy a call, which is irrelevant to what the price is today, but in any case right now the price for oil 2 and 3 years from now is much lower than the price today, so traders expect it to go down which would not make them in a hurry to buy now even if you think they might just put it in tanks and wait for the price too go up, which they don't actually do. I was just pointing that out.

Now yes, what I think needs to happen is that the price of petroleum goes to approximately zero because nobody is buying it, but that won't happen for many years. If it goes up in the meantime that will actually help because it will encourage alternatives. But that's an entirely different discussion. What set all this off was the administration getting blamed for the price of gas today, which is just dumb. Anyway it's still cheaper than it was in 2014 so I don't know what the big freakout is anyway.

Capitalism

Apparently some of capitalism's biggest fans don't understand how it works. The United States is "energy independent" in the sense that we export more fossil fuels than we import. If OPEC decides to do another embargo, we can produce all the energy we need right here in the good old U S of A.

However, when the price of oil goes up globally, it goes up here too, even though we're "energy independent" in the above sense. The reason for that is that U.S. oil producers are for-profit corporations, and they will sell their product to the highest bidder. If foreigners are willing to pay more, we have to pay more too, or they won't sell their products to us. 

The only way for that not to happen would be for the government to own all the oil companies. Then the government could decide to sell to Americans for less than the global market price. But that would be socialism. I trust this clears up any confusion.

More on Freedumb

 A sobering piece in The Guardian by Van Badham about the global pandemic of insanity. With Rand Paul and Ronald T. Dump cheering on the phony "truckers" protest in Canada (most of the participants are not truckers and 90% of Canadian professional truck drivers are happily vaccinated), it's important to understand what's really going on.

This is not a spontaneous uprising -- it's a global phenomenon that's being organized and financed by shadowy millionaires, or maybe billionaires. 

 

Different countries’ protests may claim they’re just “inspired” by one another, but a chilling tactical similarity to the protests suggests a deeper level of international coordination. Last year, the Logically group revealed Melbourne’s protests occurred among worldwide action devised and organised by extremists from Germany. Supposedly local organisers in Canada and Australia have been tracked to foreign servers, operating hacked accounts. Observe now how the same behaviours – from shared language, icons and slogans to their direct organising tactics on the ground – are common across the protests. Note that their political targets are consistently the apparatus of democratic government itself.

And, as Badham convincingly describes, the people caught up in it are in the thralls of a bizarre variety of delusions. 

 

Across these countries, protestors appear as a wild herd of “sovcit”, anti-vaxxer, QAnonner and more nefarious fellow travellers, alongside some more ordinary people. Sometimes it’s hard to tell whether social media content about these events has been gathered by extremism monitors, or comedians.

Participants unwilling to be injected with a free vaccine safely used on hundreds of millions of people further advise each other that drinking one’s own wee is curative and somehow “camel urine deals with cancer”. Monitors observe attendees costumed as paramedics, pilots and deceased Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Someone really wears a tinfoil hat.

The ultimate goal of the people behind all of this is the destruction of democracy.  This is really happening folks. It's not a joke.

Sunday Sermonette: They don't teach this in Sunday school

And you aren't likely to hear a sermon preached on it either. Before we get to the really weird shit, a reminder that Mephibosheth is Jonathan's son and Saul's grandson, who was dropped by his nurse and made lame. David brought him to Jerusalem and gave him an estate. Mephibosheth's son is Micah, and apparently that's who David inquires after; but why Micah's defection to Absalom costs Mephibosheth is estate is not explained.

The second incident is also a bit mysterious. David decides to put up with a guy cursing him and throwing rocks at his party. Basically, David says "Who cares, that's the least of our worries." Fair enough I suppose.

 

But it's the finale that keeps this out of the Children's Book of Bible Stories. Ahithophel, a counselor renowned for his sagacity, has deserted David and gone over to Absalom. He advises Absalom to  set up a tent and put on a live sex show for the people of Jerusalem by raping all ten of David's concubines. The point of this is to humiliate David. It also sort kinda fulfills Nathan's curse from Ch. 12, as punishment for raping Bathsheba and getting Uriah killed, but not exactly. Remember:

¹¹ Thus says the Lord, ‘Behold, I will raise up evil against you out of your own house; and I will take your wives before your eyes, and give them to your neighbor, and he shall lie with your wives in the sight of this sun. ¹² For you did it secretly; but I will do this thing before all Israel, and before the sun.’”

 

However, it is not David's neighbor but his  son who does the raping, and it is the concubines, not the wives, who get raped. Anyway it's apparently God's will that this happen. The point is to humiliate David. Who cares about the concubines? Certainly not God.

16 When David had passed a little beyond the summit, Ziba the servant of Mephib′osheth met him, with a couple of asses saddled, bearing two hundred loaves of bread, a hundred bunches of raisins, a hundred of summer fruits, and a skin of wine. ² And the king said to Ziba, “Why have you brought these?” Ziba answered, “The asses are for the king’s household to ride on, the bread and summer fruit for the young men to eat, and the wine for those who faint in the wilderness to drink.” ³ And the king said, “And where is your master’s son?” Ziba said to the king, “Behold, he remains in Jerusalem; for he said, ‘Today the house of Israel will give me back the kingdom of my father.’” ⁴ Then the king said to Ziba, “Behold, all that belonged to Mephib′osheth is now yours.” And Ziba said, “I do obeisance; let me ever find favor in your sight, my lord the king.”

Shimei Curses David

⁵ When King David came to Bahu′rim, there came out a man of the family of the house of Saul, whose name was Shim′e-i, the son of Gera; and as he came he cursed continually. ⁶ And he threw stones at David, and at all the servants of King David; and all the people and all the mighty men were on his right hand and on his left. ⁷ And Shim′e-i said as he cursed, “Begone, begone, you man of blood, you worthless fellow! ⁸ The Lord has avenged upon you all the blood of the house of Saul, in whose place you have reigned; and the Lord has given the kingdom into the hand of your son Ab′salom. See, your ruin is on you; for you are a man of blood.”

⁹ Then Abi′shai the son of Zeru′iah said to the king, “Why should this dead dog curse my lord the king? Let me go over and take off his head.” ¹⁰ But the king said, “What have I to do with you, you sons of Zeru′iah? If he is cursing because the Lord has said to him, ‘Curse David,’ who then shall say, ‘Why have you done so?’” ¹¹ And David said to Abi′shai and to all his servants, “Behold, my own son seeks my life; how much more now may this Benjaminite! Let him alone, and let him curse; for the Lord has bidden him. ¹² It may be that the Lord will look upon my affliction,^[a] and that the Lord will repay me with good for this cursing of me today.” ¹³ So David and his men went on the road, while Shim′e-i went along on the hillside opposite him and cursed as he went, and threw stones at him and flung dust. ¹⁴ And the king, and all the people who were with him, arrived weary at the Jordan;^[b] and there he refreshed himself.

The Counsel of Ahithophel

¹⁵ Now Ab′salom and all the people, the men of Israel, came to Jerusalem, and Ahith′ophel with him. ¹⁶ And when Hushai the Archite, David’s friend, came to Ab′salom, Hushai said to Ab′salom, “Long live the king! Long live the king!” ¹⁷ And Ab′salom said to Hushai, “Is this your loyalty to your friend? Why did you not go with your friend?” ¹⁸ And Hushai said to Ab′salom, “No; for whom the Lord and this people and all the men of Israel have chosen, his I will be, and with him I will remain. ¹⁹ And again, whom should I serve? Should it not be his son? As I have served your father, so I will serve you.”

²⁰ Then Ab′salom said to Ahith′ophel, “Give your counsel; what shall we do?” ²¹ Ahith′ophel said to Ab′salom, “Go in to your father’s concubines, whom he has left to keep the house; and all Israel will hear that you have made yourself odious to your father, and the hands of all who are with you will be strengthened.” ²² So they pitched a tent for Ab′salom upon the roof; and Ab′salom went in to his father’s concubines in the sight of all Israel. ²³ Now in those days the counsel which Ahith′ophel gave was as if one consulted the oracle^[c] of God; so was all the counsel of Ahith′ophel esteemed, both by David and by Ab′salom.

Footnotes

1. 2 Samuel 16:12 Gk Vg: Heb iniquity
2. 2 Samuel 16:14 Gk: Heb lacks at the Jordan
3. 2 Samuel 16:23 Heb word

On politics

I've said before that it is a fundamental error to understand electoral politics as a mechanism for translating voters' desires into policy. There are some structural reasons why it just doesn't work that way, most fundamentally that to the extent voters have policy preferences at all, they are mixed up in all sorts of combinations, and particular ones have different salience for each voter. The paradigmatic example is that while a substantial majority of Americans favor legal abortion, for most of them the issue doesn't decide their vote; while for a minority it's all important. That's why support for a minority position can be a winning strategy for some politicians.

But the fact is that most voters don't understand how public policy affects their lives. Whether abortion is legal or not is straightforward, but why someone has trouble making ends meet is complicated. The party in power, and the president in particular, gets credit or blame for circumstances that are largely or entirely out of their control. An excellent example right now is the price of gasoline. The price of gas right now is actually not high by historic standards -- it's lower than it was in 2014. But people don't remember that, they only compare it to the pandemic low. The price of gas actually started to rise in mid-2020, and it just continued after Biden took office. The increase has absolutely nothing to do with any policy of the United States government, certainly not anything that changed in January 2021. 

Gasoline prices have been rising because crude oil prices have been rising, with a slight additional contribution from the closure of refineries. Crude oil prices have been rising because oil producers have not increased production fast enough to keep up with the increase in demand since the pandemic low. The threat of conflict over Ukraine has also contributed to rising prices recently, as Russia is a major oil producer. The price of gasoline has absolutely nothing to do with Joe Biden. He is actually working to bring prices down by encouraging nations to increase production and possibly releasing some supplies from the strategic petroleum reserve. But as Andrew Gross of the American Automobile Association says:

There are not a lot of tools that any administration, either Republican or Democrat, can [use], just because so much of what we pay at the pump is wrapped up in the price of oil. That shows the pickle we're in, because we are so fossil-fuel dependent.

Right. So we need to stop using gasoline at all. That's the only solution in the long term. And Biden wanted to make real progress toward that goal, but the Republicans and Manchinema wouldn't let him.

Update: This should be a fairly obvious point, but oil traders buy oil in order to sell it now, not six years in the future. Nobody is going to buy oil with the intention of storing it for several years before they sell it. The possible war in Ukraine might happen tomorrow. 

Update 2: The United States is a net exporter of petroleum, or to be more precise of petroleum and petroleum products. Nothing has changed. Oil is sold on a global market and it is on the global market that the price is set.

 

The masked sociologist

I see a lot of takes to the effect that Democratic governors deciding to end mask mandates even as the CDC maintains its guidance for masking in schools and other publications is a case of Democrats in Disarray™. No.

Legally, constitutionally actually, the CDC only provides guidance about  public health measures which are the domain of the states, based on the police power as reserved to them by the 10th Amendment. CDC is not a political agency, it is a scientific agency, and it has no regulatory authority per se. (It does require that states and health care providers submit certain data to it.) Joe Biden and other administration officials do not tell the CDC what guidance to issue. It acts independently in that regard. (And BTW the White House doesn't tell the FDA what drugs to approve either.) Of course, the president can fire the CDC director if he really doesn't like what she does but the current president has shown no proclivity to act in that manner.

The states and municipalities are free to follow the guidance or not. I do not have a problem with that in principle because the CDC issues a single national guidance and local circumstances can vary. I do have a problem with it in practice because many (not all) Republican governors have been irresponsible but that's another issue. There are obviously tradeoffs to epidemic mitigation measures, many people don't like wearing masks and it may be something of an obstacle to pedagogy and a good school atmosphere. I taught a class on Monday wearing a mask, and no, I didn't like it. It's not that big of  a deal but if there isn't serious risk it's good not to require it and lifting the requirements will also, hopefully, calm down the political atmosphere and make people feel more comfortable. People who are more comfortable wearing a mask should continue to do so of course, and everybody should respect their decision.

The fact is we're in a much better place now than we were a year ago. About 70% of the population is vaccinated, many others have some natural immunity from exposure, there are more effective and reasonably inexpensive treatments for people who do get sick. Nature finally did us a favor by coming up with a variant that is highly contagious but less likely to cause severe disease, which means more people now have natural immunity without having been hospitalized. The storm of infections is receding in most parts of the country and what's most important now is to keeping getting more people vaccinated. That's our way out of this. 

So if a governor, such as my governor Ned Lamont wants to make the decision to lift mandates contrary to the CDC guidance, in my view that's perfectly defensible. It doesn't represent any political rift with the president. Jen Psaki says the administration continues to encourage people to follow the CDC guidance but that's as far as they go. Of course it will be hard to reinstate mandates should matters take a turn for the worse but you have to do it at some point, and now may be the time.

Wednesday Bible Study: Legitimate Political Discourse

Well, it kind of is. Absalom manages to usurp the throne basically by becoming more popular than David. But there a lot of plot twists in this. I'll make comments along the way.

15 After this Ab′salom got himself a chariot and horses, and fifty men to run before him.

This first sentence seems a non-sequitur.

² And Ab′salom used to rise early and stand beside the way of the gate; and when any man had a suit to come before the king for judgment, Ab′salom would call to him, and say, “From what city are you?” And when he said, “Your servant is of such and such a tribe in Israel,” ³ Ab′salom would say to him, “See, your claims are good and right; but there is no man deputed by the king to hear you.” ⁴ Ab′salom said moreover, “Oh that I were judge in the land! Then every man with a suit or cause might come to me, and I would give him justice.” ⁵ And whenever a man came near to do obeisance to him, he would put out his hand, and take hold of him, and kiss him. ⁶ Thus Ab′salom did to all of Israel who came to the king for judgment; so Ab′salom stole the hearts of the men of Israel.

Okay, so the idea here is that the king acts as what in modern societies is the civil judiciary. But obviously he can't fulfill that function all by himself for a society in which he can raise 100,000 soldiers.  As a reminder, if David existed at all, his realm was actually just a few small villages, not the might warrior kingdom depicted here. So this might have been possible, but you can't have it both ways.

⁷ And at the end of four^[a] years Ab′salom said to the king, “Pray let me go and pay my vow, which I have vowed to the Lord, in Hebron. ⁸ For your servant vowed a vow while I dwelt at Geshur in Aram, saying, ‘If the Lord will indeed bring me back to Jerusalem, then I will offer worship to the Lord.’” ⁹ The king said to him, “Go in peace.” So he arose, and went to Hebron. ¹⁰ But Ab′salom sent secret messengers throughout all the tribes of Israel, saying, “As soon as you hear the sound of the trumpet, then say, ‘Ab′salom is king at Hebron!’” ¹¹ With Ab′salom went two hundred men from Jerusalem who were invited guests, and they went in their simplicity, and knew nothing. ¹² And while Ab′salom was offering the sacrifices, he sent for^[b] Ahith′ophel the Gi′lonite, David’s counselor, from his city Giloh. And the conspiracy grew strong, and the people with Ab′salom kept increasing.

¹³ And a messenger came to David, saying, “The hearts of the men of Israel have gone after Ab′salom.” ¹⁴ Then David said to all his servants who were with him at Jerusalem, “Arise, and let us flee; or else there will be no escape for us from Ab′salom; go in haste, lest he overtake us quickly, and bring down evil upon us, and smite the city with the edge of the sword.” ¹⁵ And the king’s servants said to the king, “Behold, your servants are ready to do whatever my lord the king decides.” ¹⁶ So the king went forth, and all his household after him. And the king left ten concubines to keep the house. ¹⁷ 

 This will turn out to be very bad luck for the concubines. Note that he is leaving them defenseless.

 

And the king went forth, and all the people after him; and they halted at the last house. ¹⁸ And all his servants passed by him; and all the Cher′ethites, and all the Pel′ethites, and all the six hundred Gittites who had followed him from Gath, passed on before the king.

¹⁹ Then the king said to It′tai the Gittite, “Why do you also go with us? Go back, and stay with the king; for you are a foreigner, and also an exile from^[c] your home. ²⁰ You came only yesterday, and shall I today make you wander about with us, seeing I go I know not where? Go back, and take your brethren with you; and may the Lord show^[d] steadfast love and faithfulness to you.” ²¹ But It′tai answered the king, “As the Lord lives, and as my lord the king lives, wherever my lord the king shall be, whether for death or for life, there also will your servant be.” ²² And David said to It′tai, “Go then, pass on.” So It′tai the Gittite passed on, with all his men and all the little ones who were with him. ²³ And all the country wept aloud as all the people passed by, and the king crossed the brook Kidron, and all the people passed on toward the wilderness.

²⁴ And Abi′athar came up, and lo, Zadok came also, with all the Levites, bearing the ark of the covenant of God; and they set down the ark of God, until the people had all passed out of the city. ²⁵ Then the king said to Zadok, “Carry the ark of God back into the city. If I find favor in the eyes of the Lord, he will bring me back and let me see both it and his habitation; ²⁶ but if he says, ‘I have no pleasure in you,’ behold, here I am, let him do to me what seems good to him.” ²⁷ The king also said to Zadok the priest, “Look,^[e] go back to the city in peace, you and Abi′athar,^[f] with your two sons, Ahim′a-az your son, and Jonathan the son of Abi′athar. ²⁸ See, I will wait at the fords of the wilderness, until word comes from you to inform me.” ²⁹ So Zadok and Abi′athar carried the ark of God back to Jerusalem; and they remained there.

This is rather feckless. First they bring the Ark along with the king's party, then he decides to send it back to Jerusalem along with the priests. 

³⁰ But David went up the ascent of the Mount of Olives, weeping as he went, barefoot and with his head covered; and all the people who were with him covered their heads, and they went up, weeping as they went. ³¹ And it was told David, “Ahith′ophel is among the conspirators with Ab′salom.” And David said, “O Lord, I pray thee, turn the counsel of Ahith′ophel into foolishness.”

Hushai Becomes David’s Spy

³² When David came to the summit, where God was worshiped, behold, Hushai the Archite came to meet him with his coat rent and earth upon his head. ³³ David said to him, “If you go on with me, you will be a burden to me. ³⁴ But if you return to the city, and say to Ab′salom, ‘I will be your servant, O king; as I have been your father’s servant in time past, so now I will be your servant,’ then you will defeat for me the counsel of Ahith′ophel. ³⁵ Are not Zadok and Abi′athar the priests with you there? So whatever you hear from the king’s house, tell it to Zadok and Abi′athar the priests. ³⁶ Behold, their two sons are with them there, Ahim′a-az, Zadok’s son, and Jonathan, Abi′athar’s son; and by them you shall send to me everything you hear.” ³⁷ So Hushai, David’s friend, came into the city, just as Ab′salom was entering Jerusalem.

This sets up some substantial future complications.

Footnotes

1. 2 Samuel 15:7 Gk Syr: Heb forty
2. 2 Samuel 15:12 Or sent
3. 2 Samuel 15:19 Gk Syr Vg: Heb to
4. 2 Samuel 15:20 Gk: Heb lacks may the Lord show
5. 2 Samuel 15:27 Gk: Heb Are you a seer? or Do you see?
6. 2 Samuel 15:27 Cn: Heb lacks and Abiathar

The torrent of bullshit

It's paywalled, but if you still have a NYT free read left you might want to check out Getting Rid of Joe Rogan Won't Solve the Health Misinformation Problem, by Julia Belluz and John Lavis. As they rightly point out, Joe Rogan and his guests spew dangerous falsehoods, but we're swimming in an ocean of crap. 

 

Health disinformation is as old as commerce. In the 19th Century, all of medicine was basically bunk, but people made fortunes selling worthless "patent medicines," through traveling shows or by mail order, and in stores. It wasn't until 1912 that congress passed legislation outlawing labels with fake medical claims, but it wasn't until 1938 that congress required evidence of safety before medicines could be marketed. 

 

Unfortunately, by calling products "dietary supplements" manufacturers could avoid the need for FDA approval. Legislation passed in 1994 allows the FDA to ban false claims about supplements, and to assure that they contain what they purport to contain, but they can still make whatever false claims they want if they include the statement " "This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease." So the pharmacy shelves are full of worthless products. In addition to selling worthless pills and devices, people make money the way Joe Rogan and Fox News do, by attracting advertisers to their fake news shows.  

There are also essentially cult leaders who push one or another false theory of health and illness. We've been over the disinformation about Covid-19 before, but much of it falls in this category. As far as I know the manufacturers of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine aren't behind the false promotion of these products, but the people who do promote them evidently do it as a political strategy, pretending to be rebels against an oppressive orthodoxy. 

And this brings us to the point that really interests me, which is the question of why so many people would rather believe snake oil peddlers than trust the scientific consensus. There are probably a few reasons, but it doesn't make any sense to me. Pharmaceutical research is indeed tainted to some degree by the profit motive, but the FDA and scientific norms do put real constraints on it. When people try to discredit "Big Pharma" by claiming they're in it for the money, why do they think all that crap is for sale at the GNC? I don't get it.

The single most important issue in the 2016 election . . .

 . . . as I'm sure you recall, was proper email management and security practices.

Sunday Sermonette: Let the complications begin

I believe I said previously that there are many twists and turns to the whole Absalom story. I believe it will be helpful to summarize the plot of Ch. 14. For unexplained reasons, Joab decides that he wants David to recall Absalom from exile for killing  Amnon. Note that it isn't clear why Absalom is in exile in the first place since the previous chapter says that David isn't really holding it against him.

Anyway, Joab hatches an elaborate plot to get David to agree that he should forgive a man for killing his brother,  and then spring it on him that ergo, he should forgive Absalom. David figures out that this was all Joab's idea, and he goes along with it, but only part way. Absalom can return to Jerusalem, but he can't see David in person. Absalom isn't happy with this half-way forgiveness, so he tries to get Joab to intercede again with David, but when Joab doesn't respond, Absalom sets Joab's field on fire. That gets Joab's attention. While it wasn't exactly the nicest way of asking, Joab agrees, asks David to forgive Absalom entirely, and David agrees. Big mistake, as we shall see!

By the way, when Absalom cuts his hair every year, it weights six pounds.

14 Now Jo′ab the son of Zeru′iah perceived that the king’s heart went out to Ab′salom. ² And Jo′ab sent to Teko′a, and fetched from there a wise woman, and said to her, “Pretend to be a mourner, and put on mourning garments; do not anoint yourself with oil, but behave like a woman who has been mourning many days for the dead; ³ and go to the king, and speak thus to him.” So Jo′ab put the words in her mouth.

⁴ When the woman of Teko′a came to the king, she fell on her face to the ground, and did obeisance, and said, “Help, O king.” ⁵ And the king said to her, “What is your trouble?” She answered, “Alas, I am a widow; my husband is dead. ⁶ And your handmaid had two sons, and they quarreled with one another in the field; there was no one to part them, and one struck the other and killed him. ⁷ And now the whole family has risen against your handmaid, and they say, ‘Give up the man who struck his brother, that we may kill him for the life of his brother whom he slew’; and so they would destroy the heir also. Thus they would quench my coal which is left, and leave to my husband neither name nor remnant upon the face of the earth.”

⁸ Then the king said to the woman, “Go to your house, and I will give orders concerning you.” ⁹ And the woman of Teko′a said to the king, “On me be the guilt, my lord the king, and on my father’s house; let the king and his throne be guiltless.” ¹⁰ The king said, “If any one says anything to you, bring him to me, and he shall never touch you again.” ¹¹ Then she said, “Pray let the king invoke the Lord your God, that the avenger of blood slay no more, and my son be not destroyed.” He said, “As the Lord lives, not one hair of your son shall fall to the ground.”

¹² Then the woman said, “Pray let your handmaid speak a word to my lord the king.” He said, “Speak.” ¹³ And the woman said, “Why then have you planned such a thing against the people of God? For in giving this decision the king convicts himself, inasmuch as the king does not bring his banished one home again. ¹⁴ We must all die, we are like water spilt on the ground, which cannot be gathered up again; but God will not take away the life of him who devises^[a] means not to keep his banished one an outcast. ¹⁵ Now I have come to say this to my lord the king because the people have made me afraid; and your handmaid thought, ‘I will speak to the king; it may be that the king will perform the request of his servant. ¹⁶ For the king will hear, and deliver his servant from the hand of the man who would destroy me and my son together from the heritage of God.’ ¹⁷ And your handmaid thought, ‘The word of my lord the king will set me at rest’; for my lord the king is like the angel of God to discern good and evil. The Lord your God be with you!”

¹⁸ Then the king answered the woman, “Do not hide from me anything I ask you.” And the woman said, “Let my lord the king speak.” ¹⁹ The king said, “Is the hand of Jo′ab with you in all this?” The woman answered and said, “As surely as you live, my lord the king, one cannot turn to the right hand or to the left from anything that my lord the king has said. It was your servant Jo′ab who bade me; it was he who put all these words in the mouth of your handmaid. ²⁰ In order to change the course of affairs your servant Jo′ab did this. But my lord has wisdom like the wisdom of the angel of God to know all things that are on the earth.”

²¹ Then the king said to Jo′ab, “Behold now, I grant this; go, bring back the young man Ab′salom.” ²² And Jo′ab fell on his face to the ground, and did obeisance, and blessed the king; and Jo′ab said, “Today your servant knows that I have found favor in your sight, my lord the king, in that the king has granted the request of his servant.” ²³ So Jo′ab arose and went to Geshur, and brought Ab′salom to Jerusalem. ²⁴ And the king said, “Let him dwell apart in his own house; he is not to come into my presence.” So Ab′salom dwelt apart in his own house, and did not come into the king’s presence.

David Forgives Absalom

²⁵ Now in all Israel there was no one so much to be praised for his beauty as Ab′salom; from the sole of his foot to the crown of his head there was no blemish in him. ²⁶ And when he cut the hair of his head (for at the end of every year he used to cut it; when it was heavy on him, he cut it), he weighed the hair of his head, two hundred shekels by the king’s weight. ²⁷ There were born to Ab′salom three sons, and one daughter whose name was Tamar; she was a beautiful woman.

²⁸ So Ab′salom dwelt two full years in Jerusalem, without coming into the king’s presence. ²⁹ Then Ab′salom sent for Jo′ab, to send him to the king; but Jo′ab would not come to him. And he sent a second time, but Jo′ab would not come. ³⁰ Then he said to his servants, “See, Jo′ab’s field is next to mine, and he has barley there; go and set it on fire.” So Ab′salom’s servants set the field on fire. ³¹ Then Jo′ab arose and went to Ab′salom at his house, and said to him, “Why have your servants set my field on fire?” ³² Ab′salom answered Jo′ab, “Behold, I sent word to you, ‘Come here, that I may send you to the king, to ask, “Why have I come from Geshur? It would be better for me to be there still.” Now therefore let me go into the presence of the king; and if there is guilt in me, let him kill me.’” ³³ Then Jo′ab went to the king, and told him; and he summoned Ab′salom. So he came to the king, and bowed himself on his face to the ground before the king; and the king kissed Ab′salom.

Footnotes

1. 2 Samuel 14:14 Cn: Heb and he devises

I got your legitimate political discourse right here

I will not worry about the feelings of the people I am about to insult. If they constitute 30% or 35% of the U.S. population, so be it. The Republican party is now, unequivocally, a fascist death cult. The party -- as defined by its congressional leadership and most of its membership, most governors, state legislative delegations, local school boards and city governments, and its national committee -- is a white supremacist, fascist organization that exists for the express purpose of overthrowing democratic governance and installing a white Christian ethno-nationalist authoritarian state. That is what they openly declare.

The cult demands adherence to a set of false beliefs, many of which are dangerous to human life, many utterly ridiculous. It also demands unquestioning, slavish obedience to one of the most vile, repulsive humans imaginable -- a malignant narcissist, a pathological liar, a sadistic psychopath, and an ignorant idiot. The cult exalts violence and the threat of violence. It demands ignorance of science and denial of history. It is bankrolled by evil people who know it is all deception but whose unbounded greed drives them relentlessly to power. 

You may want to argue that some people are duped by the cult, and we should have sympathy for them. I disagree. To be duped by this evil movement, you have to be evil.

Enough with the Nazis already

You have no doubt heard about the Nazi rally in Orlando the other day,  which Governor DeathSantis never got around to condemning until he was asked about it at a news conference. 

The protests have been met with disgust from Democrats and Republicans alike. However, DeSantis did not publicly condemn the marchers until Monday during a press conference, and then largely to deflect blame on to his political opponents.

“So what I’m going to say is these people, these Democrats who are trying to use this as some type of political issue to try to smear me as if I had something to do with that, we’re not playing their game,” he said.

Well sure, he doesn't want to alienate his base. But that was just a standard Nazi rally, threatening to murder Jews and singing the praises of Donald Trump. But this one is kind of bizarre. Neo-Nazis protest health equity doctors outside Brigham and Women's Hospital. 

BOSTON (AP) — Two doctors who teach at Harvard Medical School and have been working to establish greater equity in health care for people of color say they are undeterred by a recent protest outside Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston by a group of neo-Nazis who claimed they are “anti-white.”

Dr. Michelle Morse, who was formerly on staff at Brigham and Women’s, is now the chief medical officer for the New York City Health Department.

Dr. Bram Wispelwey is an internal medicine and public health doctor at Brigham and Women’s.

Morse and Wispelwey told GBH News for a story published online Wednesday that their approach to medicine addresses the health concerns of those who have consistently been left behind by modern medicine. . . .

About two dozen protesters dressed similarly in khaki pants and dark hoodies, and wearing face coverings, held up a banner outside the hospital on Jan. 22 that said “B and W Hospital Kills Whites.”

They also passed out flyers with pictures of Morse and Wispelwey claiming the doctors promoted “anti-white genocidal policy.”

 

Now, in case you didn't already know it, there are massively well-documented inequities in health and health care in the United States. You can actually download a whole book about it from the Institute of Medicine if you're interested. The subject is complicated -- obviously it goes back to the days of slavery and Jim Crow when in much of the country, African Americans couldn't get health care at all.  Today, medical facilities in predominantly low income and minority neighborhoods are inferior, and despite protestations to the contrary by many physicians, studies have repeatedly shown biases in diagnosis and treatment recommendations. 

But the perception that trying to correct injustice and inequality somehow constitutes discrimination against people who are historically privileged seems to be a commonality of conservative thinking. These Nazis are just wrapping it more explicitly in white supremacy than most.We should all want a society with justice for all. That isn't bad for white people. It's what's right for everyone.

BTW: This is Bram Wispelwey.

He received his M.D. from Ben Gurion-University of the Negev.

Wednesday Bible Study: X-rated

Chapter 13 features an incestuous rape and fratricide. It also launches the story of Absalom, which through many twists and turns eventually dissolves Israel in civil war and anarchy, until order is restored in the end. This will take up many chapters, so be warned. The immediate story of Chapter 13 tells you everything you need to know about the status of women in Israeli society.

13 Now Ab′salom, David’s son, had a beautiful sister, whose name was Tamar; and after a time Amnon, David’s son, loved her. ² 

Well no, he didn't "love" her, he just lusted after her. To be clear, Tamar is Amnon's half-sister.

And Amnon was so tormented that he made himself ill because of his sister Tamar; for she was a virgin, and it seemed impossible to Amnon to do anything to her. ³ But Amnon had a friend, whose name was Jon′adab, the son of Shim′e-ah, David’s brother; and Jon′adab was a very crafty man. ⁴ And he said to him, “O son of the king, why are you so haggard morning after morning? Will you not tell me?” Amnon said to him, “I love Tamar, my brother Ab′salom’s sister.” ⁵ Jon′adab said to him, “Lie down on your bed, and pretend to be ill; and when your father comes to see you, say to him, ‘Let my sister Tamar come and give me bread to eat, and prepare the food in my sight, that I may see it, and eat it from her hand.’” ⁶ So Amnon lay down, and pretended to be ill; and when the king came to see him, Amnon said to the king, “Pray let my sister Tamar come and make a couple of cakes in my sight, that I may eat from her hand.”

⁷ Then David sent home to Tamar, saying, “Go to your brother Amnon’s house, and prepare food for him.” ⁸ So Tamar went to her brother Amnon’s house, where he was lying down. And she took dough, and kneaded it, and made cakes in his sight, and baked the cakes. ⁹ And she took the pan and emptied it out before him, but he refused to eat. And Amnon said, “Send out every one from me.” So every one went out from him. ¹⁰ Then Amnon said to Tamar, “Bring the food into the chamber, that I may eat from your hand.” And Tamar took the cakes she had made, and brought them into the chamber to Amnon her brother. ¹¹ But when she brought them near him to eat, he took hold of her, and said to her, “Come, lie with me, my sister.” ¹² She answered him, “No, my brother, do not force me; for such a thing is not done in Israel; do not do this wanton folly. ¹³ As for me, where could I carry my shame? And as for you, you would be as one of the wanton fools in Israel. Now therefore, I pray you, speak to the king; for he will not withhold me from you.” ¹⁴ But he would not listen to her; and being stronger than she, he forced her, and lay with her.

¹⁵ Then Amnon hated her with very great hatred; so that the hatred with which he hated her was greater than the love with which he had loved her. And Amnon said to her, “Arise, be gone.” ¹⁶ But she said to him, “No, my brother; for this wrong in sending me away is greater than the other which you did to me.”^[a] But he would not listen to her. ¹⁷ 

Okay, by way of further explanation, once Amnon had raped her he'd gotten what he wanted and wanted nothing more to do with her. The problem is that she is no longer a virgin and can never be married; her only hope would be for her rapist to marry her. But he refuses.

He called the young man who served him and said, “Put this woman out of my presence, and bolt the door after her.” ¹⁸ Now she was wearing a long robe with sleeves; for thus were the virgin daughters of the king clad of old.^[b] So his servant put her out, and bolted the door after her. ¹⁹ And Tamar put ashes on her head, and rent the long robe which she wore; and she laid her hand on her head, and went away, crying aloud as she went.

²⁰ And her brother Ab′salom said to her, “Has Amnon your brother been with you? Now hold your peace, my sister; he is your brother; do not take this to heart.” So Tamar dwelt, a desolate woman, in her brother Ab′salom’s house. ²¹ When King David heard of all these things, he was very angry. ²² But Ab′salom spoke to Amnon neither good nor bad; for Ab′salom hated Amnon, because he had forced his sister Tamar.

Absalom Avenges the Violation of His Sister

²³ After two full years Ab′salom had sheepshearers at Ba′al-ha′zor, which is near E′phraim, and Ab′salom invited all the king’s sons. ²⁴ And Ab′salom came to the king, and said, “Behold, your servant has sheepshearers; pray let the king and his servants go with your servant.” ²⁵ But the king said to Ab′salom, “No, my son, let us not all go, lest we be burdensome to you.” He pressed him, but he would not go but gave him his blessing. ²⁶ Then Ab′salom said, “If not, pray let my brother Amnon go with us.” And the king said to him, “Why should he go with you?” ²⁷ But Ab′salom pressed him until he let Amnon and all the king’s sons go with him. ²⁸ Then Ab′salom commanded his servants, “Mark when Amnon’s heart is merry with wine, and when I say to you, ‘Strike Amnon,’ then kill him. Fear not; have I not commanded you? Be courageous and be valiant.” ²⁹ So the servants of Ab′salom did to Amnon as Ab′salom had commanded. Then all the king’s sons arose, and each mounted his mule and fled.

³⁰ While they were on the way, tidings came to David, “Ab′salom has slain all the king’s sons, and not one of them is left.” ³¹ Then the king arose, and rent his garments, and lay on the earth; and all his servants who were standing by rent their garments. ³² But Jon′adab the son of Shim′e-ah, David’s brother, said, “Let not my lord suppose that they have killed all the young men the king’s sons, for Amnon alone is dead, for by the command of Ab′salom this has been determined from the day he forced his sister Tamar. ³³ Now therefore let not my lord the king so take it to heart as to suppose that all the king’s sons are dead; for Amnon alone is dead.”

³⁴ But Ab′salom fled. And the young man who kept the watch lifted up his eyes, and looked, and behold, many people were coming from the Horona′im road^[c] by the side of the mountain. ³⁵ And Jon′adab said to the king, “Behold, the king’s sons have come; as your servant said, so it has come about.” ³⁶ And as soon as he had finished speaking, behold, the king’s sons came, and lifted up their voice and wept; and the king also and all his servants wept very bitterly.

³⁷ But Ab′salom fled, and went to Talmai the son of Ammi′hud, king of Geshur. And David mourned for his son day after day. ³⁸ So Ab′salom fled, and went to Geshur, and was there three years. ³⁹ And the spirit^[d] of the king longed to go forth to Ab′salom; for he was comforted about Amnon, seeing he was dead.

Footnotes

1. 2 Samuel 13:16 Cn Compare Gk Vg: Heb No, for this great wrong in sending me away is (worse) than the other which you did to me
2. 2 Samuel 13:18 Cn: Heb clad in robes
3. 2 Samuel 13:34 Cn Compare Gk: Heb the road behind him
4. 2 Samuel 13:39 Gk: Heb David

Rationing and Indication

I'll let y'all in on a secret: I'm writing a book. It's basically everything you need to know, as a citizen, taxpayer, consumer of medical services, friend or family member of consumers of medical services, and just plain person, about health and health care in the U.S. For some reason I haven't much connected the work on the book to this blog -- there is tons of materials I could have lifted from my book chapters and posted here for your delectation and delight. I'm not sure why I haven't been doing that, and maybe I will.

Anyway, the previous post creates an occasion to discuss a matter that seems pretty obvious to those of us who work in public health and health services research, but seems to seriously confuse a large segment of the population. This is the allocation of medical resources. Here in the U.S., we have two big problems: many people can't get health care that they need, mostly because they can't afford it but also in some special situations because of fundamental scarcity of resources; while many other people get a lot of medical services that they don't need  and aren't good for them.

When we talk about "rationing" health care people go ballistic. It's a fundamental human right! You can't ration it, that's some bureaucrat deciding who lives and dies! Death panels! Discrimination!

Well, obviously we do ration it, because of problem number one. People who can't afford what they need don't get it. But even if we had a universal system like all civilized countries, we'd still need a way of allocating resources fairly and efficiently. That's because we don't have infinite money to spend on health care. We need to spend on food, shelter, clothing, and the infrastructure to provide them; and most people want some money to spend on the finer things in life. In fact health care doesn't have more than a small amount to do with how healthy people are and how long they live -- it's deprivation in other areas that shortens our lives. Yet here we have people demanding that because "human life is infinitely precious" we need to spend a million dollars to give a terminally ill cancer patient a chance at a few more weeks of life, even as other people die because they can't get much less expensive but more beneficial health care, or they can't afford an adequate diet, or they breathe polluted air, or the don't get an adequate education. In fact with that million dollars we could vaccinate a hundred thousand children in poor countries against diseases that kill one of them every five minutes. But nobody seems to be screaming for that.

The problem of allocating donor organs is complicated. It touches on some of the bigger issues I just mentioned. There are inequities, for example Black people wait longer on average for kidneys. But inequities or not, there aren't enough to go around. So one criterion is to give them to people who have the best odds of a good outcome. We want to maximize the years of quality life we can give people and that means we don't want to give the organs to people who are less likely to benefit. That's more or less equivalent to the more general problem of spending scarce money to get the maximum benefit.

Unfortunately, this often means that the sickest people are not at the top of the list. Being seriously overweight is a counterindication for kidney transplants, so people may be required to lose weight. That doesn't mean they don't get the best possible treatment for their diabetes in the meantime, but they aren't the best candidate for a transplant. People whose hearts are in poor condition so they might not survive the surgery are also at the back of the line. And so are people at high risk of infection, because drugs that prevent organ rejection also compromise immunity against infection. At one time, HIV infection was a counterindication to organ transplantation, although thankfully today because of effective antiretroviral treatment people with HIV can have perfectly intact immune systems. 

But being fully vaccinated against diseases people may be exposed to is also a requirement. People are free, of course, to refuse vaccination. But doctors are ethically bound to allocate the scarce resource of donor organs to people who are most likely to benefit. That is not discrimination. It isn't discrimination to deny drivers' licenses to blind people or not give me a million dollar contract to play in the NBA. Sometimes what makes sense for some people doesn't make sense for others. Furthermore, doctors have to weight the benefits of any procedure against the risk. Since giving you a kidney transplant requires that we suppress your immune system, if you refuse to get vaccinated we'll just be killing you by another means, not saving your life. That seems a very weird demand.

On the other hand, when unvaccinated people do present with Covid, they actually get preferential access to scarce treatments, because they are more likely to benefit -- vaccinated people don't need the treatments as much. Many people resent that, and I think there are arguments on both sides. But medical ethics is complicated. People think about it a lot, and they do often disagree about one or another matter. But that's because they are trying their best to do what is right.

Update: If you are interested in the details of how donor organs are allocated, you can read all about it here. It's operated by the Health Services and Resource Administration. The rules have been updated a few times, through the rulemaking process which is completely transparent and invites public comment. It's pretty complicated, as there are a lot of interests to balance, and obviously people can disagree about details. But it is not the case that the people who harvest the organs decide where they go. Physical distance is part of the equation -- it matters because the organs have to get where they are going quickly so they'll be fresh. And as I say, characteristics of recipients and of the donor organs that affect the likely outcome are part of it. But it's not a secret and it doesn't involve favoritism.

Freedom's Just Another Word . . .

I don't know if it means "nothing left to lose," but a lot of people just use it as justification for whatever insanity or idiocy has captured their brains. We now have two people in need of organ transplants who aren't getting them because the people refuse to be vaccinated. Their only stated reason for refusal is that they are "free." As one of them told a reporter,

“No sir, I was born free. I will die free. I’m not changing my mind. I’ve had conversations with my family and everybody who is close to me and they know where I stand and there will not be a situation that occurs where I’ll change my mind on this topic.”

Now, think about the logic of this. Suppose he really believes (falsely) that the vaccine is ineffective or presents a risk of some sort, he is still better off getting it because otherwise he faces certain death. And by the way, the doctors are doing what is right in this situation -- they really have no choice. Transplant organs are scarce, more people need them than will get them. Therefore physicians have to allocate them to people who will have the best chance of a good outcome. Organ transplantation requires giving people immunosuppressive drugs, which means that without vaccination, they'll be at high risk of dying from Covid-19, which means the organ would be wasted.

And thanks, Republicans! If the U.S. had the level of vaccine coverage of European countries, our rate of hospitalization for Covid would have been halved.

 

 

These people are willing to ingest various poisons, which definitive evidence proves are completely ineffective against the virus. They are willing to be hospitalized, hooked up to ventilators, possibly receive very expensive experimental drugs, and endure thousands of dollars in medical costs, risk long term disability, and death -- but they won't take an absolutely free injection that has saved millions of lives around the world. Because  it is an infringement of their freedom. Uh huh.