Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Wednesday Bible Study: Major continuity error

Chapter 21 is the usual Groundhog Day story about the new king forsaking Yahweh and getting the shit beat out of him for it -- in this case literally. His bowels fall out. But. . . .

 

In the Book of Kings, Elijah dies (actually he ascends into heaven in a chariot of fire) during the reign of Jehoshaphat. Now he's writing a letter to Jehoram, after Jehoshaphat's death.  Well, okay but for those people who claim the Tanakh has no concept of an afterlife, here you go. It does so, at least in the case of this particular prophet.


21 Then Jehoshaphat rested with his ancestors and was buried with them in the City of David. And Jehoram his son succeeded him as king. Jehoram’s brothers, the sons of Jehoshaphat, were Azariah, Jehiel, Zechariah, Azariahu, Michael and Shephatiah. All these were sons of Jehoshaphat king of Israel.[a] Their father had given them many gifts of silver and gold and articles of value, as well as fortified cities in Judah, but he had given the kingdom to Jehoram because he was his firstborn son.

Jehoram King of Judah

When Jehoram established himself firmly over his father’s kingdom, he put all his brothers to the sword along with some of the officials of Israel. Jehoram was thirty-two years old when he became king, and he reigned in Jerusalem eight years. He followed the ways of the kings of Israel, as the house of Ahab had done, for he married a daughter of Ahab. He did evil in the eyes of the Lord. Nevertheless, because of the covenant the Lord had made with David, the Lord was not willing to destroy the house of David. He had promised to maintain a lamp for him and his descendants forever.

In the time of Jehoram, Edom rebelled against Judah and set up its own king. So Jehoram went there with his officers and all his chariots. The Edomites surrounded him and his chariot commanders, but he rose up and broke through by night. 10 To this day Edom has been in rebellion against Judah.

Libnah revolted at the same time, because Jehoram had forsaken the Lord, the God of his ancestors. 11 He had also built high places on the hills of Judah and had caused the people of Jerusalem to prostitute themselves and had led Judah astray.

12 Jehoram received a letter from Elijah the prophet, which said:

“This is what the Lord, the God of your father David, says: ‘You have not followed the ways of your father Jehoshaphat or of Asa king of Judah. 13 But you have followed the ways of the kings of Israel, and you have led Judah and the people of Jerusalem to prostitute themselves, just as the house of Ahab did. You have also murdered your own brothers, members of your own family, men who were better than you. 14 So now the Lord is about to strike your people, your sons, your wives and everything that is yours, with a heavy blow. 15 You yourself will be very ill with a lingering disease of the bowels, until the disease causes your bowels to come out.’”

16 The Lord aroused against Jehoram the hostility of the Philistines and of the Arabs who lived near the Cushites. 17 They attacked Judah, invaded it and carried off all the goods found in the king’s palace, together with his sons and wives. Not a son was left to him except Ahaziah,[b] the youngest.

18 After all this, the Lord afflicted Jehoram with an incurable disease of the bowels. 19 In the course of time, at the end of the second year, his bowels came out because of the disease, and he died in great pain. His people made no funeral fire in his honor, as they had for his predecessors.

20 Jehoram was thirty-two years old when he became king, and he reigned in Jerusalem eight years. He passed away, to no one’s regret, and was buried in the City of David, but not in the tombs of the kings.

Footnotes

  1. 2 Chronicles 21:2 That is, Judah, as frequently in 2 Chronicles
  2. 2 Chronicles 21:17 Hebrew Jehoahaz, a variant of Ahaziah

Monday, February 20, 2023

What to do about disinformation?

This by Matthew Perrone of the AP has been showing up in a lot of places. He recounts the FDA's largely feckless battle against the sea of health-related bullshit that seems to have become an emblem of right-wing identity. He attributes the agency's credibility problem at least in part to some actual missteps, although he actually names only two -- approval of aducanumab for Alheimer's disease and what he asserts was a delayed response to the infant formula shortage. This I would say is a very weak causal attribution.


I very much doubt that the people who are dosing themselves with horse dewormer are even aware of the controversy over aducanumab and it they are, the conservative complaint about the FDA is that it's too reluctant to approve medications. I don't know how much better the agency could have done responding to the infant formula problem, but that hardly bears on their credibility when it comes to the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. 

 

I have plenty of complaints about the FDA. They often approve medications with insufficient evidence, but require post-marketing studies and surveillance. Then they don't enforce those requirements, and even if post-marketing data shows the stuff is ineffective or dangerous, they are very reluctant to withdraw approval or restrict usage. The agency's powers are also limited. They can fine companies for off-label marketing, but they can't sanction physicians for off-label prescribing, and the result is that a lot of drugs are being widely prescribed for conditions for which they have no good evidence of effectiveness.


But the snake oil salesmen and their marks don't even know about any of this, or if they do it's beside the point. The rejection of science and science-based regulation isn't happening because scientists and regulators occasionally get something wrong, or because their conclusions may be controversial. It extends even to matters about which there can be no intellectually respectable doubt. I suppose it may partly be resentment that somebody claims expertise that you don't have, but that doesn't stop people from believing their auto mechanic or their plumber. Maybe it's just that those worthies deal in a realm that seems more accessible, in which most people may feel they even have some understanding and do-it-yourself expertise. 

 

I have to admit that even for the most distinguished scientists, maters outside of their own field are pretty esoteric. I read about physics and cosmology and I just have to trust that they aren't spouting gibberish -- but I do because I know some of them and they have no ulterior motive. Also, even at the level I can understand, it does all fit together and it also works empirically. The Global Positioning System depends on general relativity. The people who build your phone and computer have to account for quantum effects. 

 

When it comes to biology and clinical science, I do know enough to evaluate claims, but that took many years of study. If you haven't gone down that path, yeah, you just have to trust me. But you can. Really. This is a serious problem to which I do not have an easy answer.



Sunday, February 19, 2023

Sunday Sermonette: Human Life is Sacred

I'll just mention that somebody has apparently discovered these Biblical posts and has started emailing me PDFs of scholarly articles about the texts I'm quoting and the archaeological context of the times. They're tracking with me so I don't think it's just computer generated. If it is, that's fairly remarkable. Anyway, to be honest, I haven't taken the time to read them so far, because I'm busy with other things and this is a side project. The historical reality or lack thereof that may be associated with all this isn't that important to me. Not to say I won't take the time to read at some point, and if it's a human, I appreciate the gesture. For everyone else, just know that I don't claim to be deeply into Biblical scholarship. I take the trouble to find out enough to figure out where this probably came from, and note some of the references and contradictions, and I add some of my own commentary. But hey, I'm a medical sociologist.


Chapter 20 is quite long, but remember the division into chapters was made by Medieval Christian monks, it wasn't in the original Hebrew. The main story, that takes up probably 90% of it, seems to have two main theological points. The first, obviously, is that Yahweh is not a universal God. He's still the God of the descendants of Jacob, and he is their specific protector and Lord. So when they have him in a good mood, he's happy to slaughter other people on their behalf and let them rob the dead. The second point is that they way to get him in a good mood is to rely on him. Jehoshaphat has been chided for relying on human alliances rather than Yahweh, so this time he goes straight to the big guy for help and gets it. Then, at the end, when he again tries to make an alliance with the apostate northern kingdom, his venture fails.


Two small points. Here it says that despite Jehoshaphat's overall adherence to the law, "the high places were not taken away." However, just three chapters earlier (17:6) the Chronicler writes "And his heart was lifted up in the ways of the LORD: moreover he took away the high places and groves out of Judah." Second, as for verse 34, "The other events of Jehoshaphat’s reign, from beginning to end, are written in the annals of Jehu son of Hanani, which are recorded in the book of the kings of Israel," the "book of the kings of Israel" is not the canonical Book of Kings, which does not mention the annals of Jehu. Both books are lost.


20 After this, the Moabites and Ammonites with some of the Meunites[a] came to wage war against Jehoshaphat.

Some people came and told Jehoshaphat, “A vast army is coming against you from Edom,[b] from the other side of the Dead Sea. It is already in Hazezon Tamar” (that is, En Gedi). Alarmed, Jehoshaphat resolved to inquire of the Lord, and he proclaimed a fast for all Judah. The people of Judah came together to seek help from the Lord; indeed, they came from every town in Judah to seek him.

Then Jehoshaphat stood up in the assembly of Judah and Jerusalem at the temple of the Lord in the front of the new courtyard and said:

Lord, the God of our ancestors, are you not the God who is in heaven? You rule over all the kingdoms of the nations. Power and might are in your hand, and no one can withstand you. Our God, did you not drive out the inhabitants of this land before your people Israel and give it forever to the descendants of Abraham your friend? They have lived in it and have built in it a sanctuary for your Name, saying, ‘If calamity comes upon us, whether the sword of judgment, or plague or famine, we will stand in your presence before this temple that bears your Name and will cry out to you in our distress, and you will hear us and save us.’

10 “But now here are men from Ammon, Moab and Mount Seir, whose territory you would not allow Israel to invade when they came from Egypt; so they turned away from them and did not destroy them. 11 See how they are repaying us by coming to drive us out of the possession you gave us as an inheritance. 12 Our God, will you not judge them? For we have no power to face this vast army that is attacking us. We do not know what to do, but our eyes are on you.”

13 All the men of Judah, with their wives and children and little ones, stood there before the Lord.

14 Then the Spirit of the Lord came on Jahaziel son of Zechariah, the son of Benaiah, the son of Jeiel, the son of Mattaniah, a Levite and descendant of Asaph, as he stood in the assembly.

15 He said: “Listen, King Jehoshaphat and all who live in Judah and Jerusalem! This is what the Lord says to you: ‘Do not be afraid or discouraged because of this vast army. For the battle is not yours, but God’s. 16 Tomorrow march down against them. They will be climbing up by the Pass of Ziz, and you will find them at the end of the gorge in the Desert of Jeruel. 17 You will not have to fight this battle. Take up your positions; stand firm and see the deliverance the Lord will give you, Judah and Jerusalem. Do not be afraid; do not be discouraged. Go out to face them tomorrow, and the Lord will be with you.’”

18 Jehoshaphat bowed down with his face to the ground, and all the people of Judah and Jerusalem fell down in worship before the Lord. 19 Then some Levites from the Kohathites and Korahites stood up and praised the Lord, the God of Israel, with a very loud voice.

20 Early in the morning they left for the Desert of Tekoa. As they set out, Jehoshaphat stood and said, “Listen to me, Judah and people of Jerusalem! Have faith in the Lord your God and you will be upheld; have faith in his prophets and you will be successful.” 21 After consulting the people, Jehoshaphat appointed men to sing to the Lord and to praise him for the splendor of his[c] holiness as they went out at the head of the army, saying:

“Give thanks to the Lord,
    for his love endures forever.”

22 As they began to sing and praise, the Lord set ambushes against the men of Ammon and Moab and Mount Seir who were invading Judah, and they were defeated. 23 The Ammonites and Moabites rose up against the men from Mount Seir to destroy and annihilate them. After they finished slaughtering the men from Seir, they helped to destroy one another.

24 When the men of Judah came to the place that overlooks the desert and looked toward the vast army, they saw only dead bodies lying on the ground; no one had escaped. 25 So Jehoshaphat and his men went to carry off their plunder, and they found among them a great amount of equipment and clothing[d] and also articles of value—more than they could take away. There was so much plunder that it took three days to collect it. 26 On the fourth day they assembled in the Valley of Berakah, where they praised the Lord. This is why it is called the Valley of Berakah[e] to this day.

27 Then, led by Jehoshaphat, all the men of Judah and Jerusalem returned joyfully to Jerusalem, for the Lord had given them cause to rejoice over their enemies. 28 They entered Jerusalem and went to the temple of the Lord with harps and lyres and trumpets.

29 The fear of God came on all the surrounding kingdoms when they heard how the Lord had fought against the enemies of Israel. 30 And the kingdom of Jehoshaphat was at peace, for his God had given him rest on every side.

The End of Jehoshaphat’s Reign

31 So Jehoshaphat reigned over Judah. He was thirty-five years old when he became king of Judah, and he reigned in Jerusalem twenty-five years. His mother’s name was Azubah daughter of Shilhi. 32 He followed the ways of his father Asa and did not stray from them; he did what was right in the eyes of the Lord. 33 The high places, however, were not removed, and the people still had not set their hearts on the God of their ancestors.

34 The other events of Jehoshaphat’s reign, from beginning to end, are written in the annals of Jehu son of Hanani, which are recorded in the book of the kings of Israel.

35 Later, Jehoshaphat king of Judah made an alliance with Ahaziah king of Israel, whose ways were wicked. 36 He agreed with him to construct a fleet of trading ships.[f] After these were built at Ezion Geber, 37 Eliezer son of Dodavahu of Mareshah prophesied against Jehoshaphat, saying, “Because you have made an alliance with Ahaziah, the Lord will destroy what you have made.” The ships were wrecked and were not able to set sail to trade.[g]

Footnotes

  1. 2 Chronicles 20:1 Some Septuagint manuscripts; Hebrew Ammonites
  2. 2 Chronicles 20:2 One Hebrew manuscript; most Hebrew manuscripts, Septuagint and Vulgate Aram
  3. 2 Chronicles 20:21 Or him with the splendor of
  4. 2 Chronicles 20:25 Some Hebrew manuscripts and Vulgate; most Hebrew manuscripts corpses
  5. 2 Chronicles 20:26 Berakah means praise.
  6. 2 Chronicles 20:36 Hebrew of ships that could go to Tarshish
  7. 2 Chronicles 20:37 Hebrew sail for Tarshish

Saturday, February 18, 2023

The Enlightenment

Observers of contemporary U.S. politics should keep in mind that until the 18th Century, most European countries were sectarian Christian states. The confession of their monarchs -- Catholic, Lutheran, Church of England -- was either imposed absolutely on all inhabitants, or at the least followers of other sects were oppressed and forced to worship in secret or under constraints. England fought a civil war over religion and the back and forth between protestant and Catholic monarchs was the most salient feature of English politics. The  so-called Pilgrims who founded the settlement at Plymouth, Massachusetts left England precisely because their sect was oppressed.


The Enlightenment was a complex movement with a unifying core of questioning received wisdom and orthodoxy. Until the 1500s, the culture rested on the assumption that everything there was to know was known. The truth was in the Bible, and whatever was not found there was known to the ancient Greeks. The Reformation -- the rebellion against the Catholic church ignited by Martin Luther -- shattered the universality of belief. Although protestants were just as dogmatic as Catholics, and just as intolerant,, thinkers arose who challenged the very idea of orthodoxy. The term "toleration" was coined to mean that people within any polity should be free to practice any religion, or at least any version of Christianity, because it was not possible to declare any of them to be the one true religion. Not all Enlightenment thinkers extended toleration to Jews, Muslims and atheists, but as time went on more and more of them did. And so by 1789 this idea made its way into the U.S. constitution.


Now, however, more than half of voters affiliated with one of the two major parties are Christian nationalists. And, obviously, they don't mean Christian in general, they mean a particular version of evangelical Protestantism that also calls for the subordination of women, suppression of sexual and gender minorities, and in many cases for white supremacy. As the NPR story says, "The survey also found correlations between people who hold Christian nationalist views as well as Anti-Black, anti-immigrant, antisemitic views, anti-Muslim and patriarchal views."

 

In other words, these people want to take us back to the 15th Century. The scientific revolution was also a major component of the Enlightenment, and they reject that as well, demanding that the Biblical story of creation be taught in school and denying all other scientific conclusions that they find inconvenient or inconsistent with their preconceived notions. Why this explosion of ignorance, bigotry and superstition has arisen at this time is generally thought to be, as historian Kristin Kobes Du Mez says, that "these views are mostly a reaction to changing demographics, as well as cultural and generational shifts in the U.S. As the country has become less white and Christian, she said these adherents want to hold on to their cultural and political power." 


Well get over it. You were long ago consigned to the ash heap of history.

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Murder most foul

As we have discussed here before, the mass shootings of strangers that get so much media attention actually represent a tiny fraction of the gun violence in the U.S. But yes, these sorts of events have become more common in the past couple of decades, which contributes to the perception that violent crime is increasing uncontrollably. Republic politicians particularly like to make this claim, although they completely rule out the proposition that any sort of gun safety legislation might be called for.

 

Let's look at the facts. Because reporting of crime is incomplete, and not uniform by state, the most reliable statistics are for homicide, which is pretty much universally counted. Rates of other violent crimes do tend to track with it. Here is the actual data for the past 30 years, annual homicides per 100,000 population, from Macrotrends.

 


As you can see, there was an upturn during the pandemic. I'm sure sociologists will be busy for the next few years trying to explain this, but we can hope it will fade away now. The main takeaway for me is that the trend has generally been downward, and quite substantially, a fact which sociologists so far have not been able to explain. We're still far below the rate in the early '90s. 


This isn't anything to be proud of. Although the U.S. is far from the most violent country in the world, our homicide rate is many multiples of the rates in other wealthy countries. In many of them, in fact, it wouldn't even be visible on this chart because the number is less than 1. I'm not drawing any firm conclusions from this, because I don't know everything. But it's important to base the discussion on facts.

Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Wednesday Bible Study: Follow the rules

Chapter 19 is just a polemic for orthodoxy. Apparently because of his recent alliance with the apostate kingdom of Israel, he has been too tolerant of people who don't obey all of Yahweh's rules. However, within Judah he does everything else right. He eliminates shrines to other Gods, admonishes the judges that they are representing God, not any secular interest; and most important reaffirms the supremacy of the Levite priesthood, which is the real point of this entire book, and for that matter everything that has come before. Remember, they wrote all this.


19 When Jehoshaphat king of Judah returned safely to his palace in Jerusalem, Jehu the seer, the son of Hanani, went out to meet him and said to the king, “Should you help the wicked and love[a] those who hate the Lord? Because of this, the wrath of the Lord is on you. There is, however, some good in you, for you have rid the land of the Asherah poles and have set your heart on seeking God.”

Jehoshaphat Appoints Judges

Jehoshaphat lived in Jerusalem, and he went out again among the people from Beersheba to the hill country of Ephraim and turned them back to the Lord, the God of their ancestors. He appointed judges in the land, in each of the fortified cities of Judah. He told them, “Consider carefully what you do, because you are not judging for mere mortals but for the Lord, who is with you whenever you give a verdict. Now let the fear of the Lord be on you. Judge carefully, for with the Lord our God there is no injustice or partiality or bribery.”

In Jerusalem also, Jehoshaphat appointed some of the Levites, priests and heads of Israelite families to administer the law of the Lord and to settle disputes. And they lived in Jerusalem. He gave them these orders: “You must serve faithfully and wholeheartedly in the fear of the Lord. 10 In every case that comes before you from your people who live in the cities—whether bloodshed or other concerns of the law, commands, decrees or regulations—you are to warn them not to sin against the Lord; otherwise his wrath will come on you and your people. Do this, and you will not sin.

11 “Amariah the chief priest will be over you in any matter concerning the Lord, and Zebadiah son of Ishmael, the leader of the tribe of Judah, will be over you in any matter concerning the king, and the Levites will serve as officials before you. Act with courage, and may the Lord be with those who do well.”

Footnotes

  1. 2 Chronicles 19:2 Or and make alliances with

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

What fools these mortals be . . .

 Here is Lake Powell, one of the two major reservoirs on the Colorado River, in 2017 and 2022 -- just a span of five years. (Image from NASA.) For some reason Lake Mead has gotten more attention, but it's happening to both of them.


 

 

The compact that allocates Colorado River water among the states was signed 100 years ago, and it allocated 20.3 billion cubic meters per year. But today, the total annual flow of the river is 15.1 billion cubic meters. The population of the Southwest therefore depends on billions of cubic meters of water every year that don't exist, for its cities and its agriculture. Oh, and by the way, these two lakes are major generators of electricity for the region. If warming continues -- which of course it will -- the flow could be reduced by another 30% by 2050. There's talk about prohibiting watering of "non-functional grass," such as highway medians, and shifting crops from alfalfa (believe it or not, alfalfa grown in California is put on container ships and sent across the ocean to feed Chinese cows) to more valuable and less water hungry crops. 


But this is just a fart in a whirlwind. Nobody wants to confront the truth, which is that, just for example, the future existence of Phoenix is seriously in question. But yeah, let's stop shipping alfalfa to China. That's just insane any way you look at it.