Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Wednesday, July 08, 2020

I'll say it again: it isn't just about dying

So we're still hearing all this yadda yadda about how yeah, newly diagnosed cases of Covid-19 are soaring in many states but the death toll is not. First of all, that isn't actually true. In the states with the most dramatic increases in cases, the daily death toll is indeed now rising. Deaths are a lagging indicator. It is certainly possible that with more young people in the case mix and improved treatment the case fatality rate will be less than it was in New York, but that's still nothing to be sanguine about. (Actually there were almost 1,000 officially reported deaths yesterday nationwide, so that whole narrative is likely to be inoperative soon anyway.)

However, you must not base your calculations on the assumption that your chance of dying is only 1% or whatever you think it is. Even if you have a so-called mild case, meaning no respiratory distress, no hospitalization, you could have brain damage, a stroke, chronic fatigue, long term respiratory insufficiency, weakness. We don't yet know how prevalent these sequelae are but they are bad enough to be widely noticed and may even be happening to people who never knew they were infected and aren't being attributed to infection. Here's an excerpt from the linked story:

Doctors may be missing signs of serious and potentially fatal brain disorders triggered by coronavirus, as they emerge in mildly affected or recovering patients, scientists have warned. Neurologists are on Wednesday publishing details of more than 40 UK Covid-19 patients whose complications ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. In some cases, the neurological problem was the patient’s first and main symptom.
But again, if all you care about is dying:



A note on commenting policy: It is not the case, as some have accused, that I only publish comments I agree with. I often publish comments that I would not be comfortable with personally, or that I find worthy subjects for debate or critique. Comments I do not publish are made in bad faith, contain gratuitous and baseless insults, are factually wrong, or based on logical fallacies. As John Holbo discusses, the ideal of allowing unfettered discussion and countering wrong speech with right speech sounds great in the abstract, but doesn't always work in practice. People who engage in the proscribed practices I list commonly don't have insight into what they are doing. But believe me, if I don't publish a comment it is because it fails one of those criteria. Maybe with enough practice you'll figure it out. Also, comparing white supremacists and well, Nazis to Nazis and comparing the autocratic psychopath Donald Trump to Hitler is completely appropriate. These are valid comparisons.

2 comments:

Eddie Pleasure said...

A coworker tested positive a little over 2 weeks ago. He had no symptoms, but his wife had a fever. He returned to work yesterday. I don't know how it was determined that it was safe for him to return. Initially we weren't even informed that he was being isolated and tested.
After working from home for about 2 months, I was told I had to return to work. The fact that the alternative was to be a former employee was left unspoken, but I stated that assumption in the email that I sent to HR and my supervisor stating that I would reluctantly return, and that assumption was not challenged.
Since returning to work, I have worn a mask all day, as well as taking other protective measures.
Monday June 13 all people inside buildings in our county (including workplaces) must wear a face covering. I have not seen any notices from HR about this new policy. It will be interesting to see what kind of spin they put on it.
(Normally there is a company picnic at a large water park. This year, the water park has cancelled all group events, so "they" cancelled our company picnic. I attended once or twice early on, but not after I realized how disgustingly filthy those places are. Yuck.)

Don Quixote said...

My friend in Arkansas had a 102 degree fever as it turns out, not 103.8. Still ... I talked to her today and she has a lot of the symptoms, though retains her sense of smell and taste. But she has no desire to eat and has little energy. I'm trying to get her to do the "JK Rowling" breathing exercises. And to vote Democratic in November. It may seem insensitive of me to talk any politics with her, but I have been trying to explain to her--is it even possible?--for months why voting for Repugnantcans is voting for her own poverty, illness, or death.