The dimension of time

It is very puzzling how many reporters, commentators and politicians don't seem to get the basic idea that an epidemic has a temporal dimension. They will write something to the effect that a policy failure has resulted in the death of 60,000 Americans, and by the time the piece is published the number is 66,000. The front page of the New York Times today says that nearly 80,000 Americans have died, but as I write this at 8:40 AM the officially reported number is 80,678 and by the time you read this it will be more.

The most bizarre use of this elimination of the dimension of time was back when people were saying things like 40,000 people die in traffic accidents every year and that's how many have died of Covid-19 but we don't shut down travel because of motor vehicle crashes. Now of course, the number of reported fatalities from the epidemic is more than the typical annual death rate from motor vehicle crashes and influenza combined, but back when it was 40,000 we knew it was going to get to 80,000 and beyond. In reality, the true toll is at least a good 50% higher.

So when the governor of Texas notices that the daily rate of new reported cases in his state has leveled off, he decides it is time to ease restrictions. This is what happens when you think that way:



It's going to be three weeks at least before we know what's really going to happen in Texas and Georgia, and other states whose governors have decided to wish this away. Good luck to us all.

Update: Ah yes, Betsy McCaughey -- world famous serial liar. But that just makes her a standard issue Republican.