The vaccine

Massive excitement as Pfizer announces it's mRNA  vaccine is "90% effective" against the virus that causes Covid-19. That has Pfizer's stock soaring and the media heralding a "breakthrough." This is probably some degree of good news but the jubilee is very premature.

 

First, although Pfizer has not been transparent about details of the ongoing clinical trial, they have not yet even met the required sample size to consider the estimate of efficacy reliable. They also have not said exactly what the endpoint is -- as I noted in a previous post, most trials apparently assess the incidence of symptomatic infections, but not the endpoints of hospitalization or serious illness, which is what we really care about. Furthermore they have not said anything about vulnerable populations. And, the required follow-up for safety monitoring will take many more months, although they could get an Emergency Use Authorization with only two months of follow-up. 

 

The worse news is that the vaccine requires storage at a constant -94 degrees Fahrenheit. Obviously the equipment necessary to transport it and store it around the country does not yet exist. Even when it does, it will only be possible to administer the vaccine in a relatively small number of central locations. You won't be able to get it at your doctor's office or the CVS. Not only that, but it requires two doses a month apart. Even if it really does work, and it is ultimately found to be safe, it will likely be at least the better part of a year before it can be widely administered.

 

So nothing will change in the next few months. You will have to continue to wear the damn mask and avoid crowded indoor spaces, and all the rest of it. We're obviously hoping for the best down the road, but down the road it will be.