Mortal Fools

I recall writing about this quite a while back but it's time to revisit. It is true that the warming atmosphere is more energetic, can hold more moisture, and is producing more frequent and more severe storms. That the ruling party of the wealthiest nation on earth denies this is an abomination. . . . 

 

However, the Guadalupe river has always been prone to catastrophic flooding. It has happened pretty regularly. In 1978, 33 people drowned when the river flooded due to tropical storm Amelia. In 1987, a flood swept away a bus full of children. Many were rescued but 9 died. The river flooded again in 2002 but I don't believe there were any fatalities. In any case, everybody knew that this could happen, but they continued to build and operate summer camps for children along the river, and declined to invest in a warning system. This flood was more powerful than the earlier ones, although I can't say whether the much greater death toll also might have had to do with there being more people near the riverbank than in the past. 

 

In any case, it's a psychological bias of humans to ignore the possibility of infrequent events. Not that every 15 years or so is all that infrequent, actually. People build their houses and farms on the slopes of active volcanoes. They build unreinforced masonry houses in earthquake zones -- that's why the death toll in earthquakes in southwest Asia is often so high. This can in part be a function of poverty. Land on volcanoes is fertile, and it's likely to be available. Earthquakes in California are far less deadly than earthquakes in Turkey or Pakistan, but that's because California building codes are very stringent, which Californians can much more readily afford. 

 

The people of Kerr County don't have that excuse, but their folly is quite common. That's why we let our guard down between pandemics, and let the public health infrastructure deteriorate. That's why the flood protection system in New Orleans was neglected -- despite repeated warnings that a major hurricane would inundate the city. I can give countless other examples of situations in the U.S. and around the world that are just begging for disaster, that nobody is paying the slightest attention to. Of course, it might not happen any time soon and then I'd be accused of being overly alarmist, so I won't try to list them. 

 

No, we can't be completely safe. We aren't about to depopulate tornado alley or Puerto Rico. But we can be a lot more realistic about prospects for disaster.