So, as it turns out hurricane Melissa did a lot of damage, but it wasn't as catastrophic as I feared it might be because the storm center passed far enough west of the capital that the airport and seaport remained functional, and the storm surge in the harbor was less than feared. Of course the disaster in the southwest of the island was maximal, but at least they'll get some help.
This should be a reminder that world history, and individual lives, are very much about luck. Many people try to develop grand theories of history that explain why important events had to happen, and many people think that people's station in life are a function of their effort and good judgment. Of course if you don't try hard and you make stupid choices your chances aren't as good, but on the other hand look at Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Of course there are discernible patterns in history, and the accumulation of capital and the evolution of technology have shaped it in particular directions. But . . .
Even great historical events can hinge on very trivial happenstance. If Anthony Wiener hadn't sent a dick pick to an underage girl, Donald Trump never would have become president. (I'm pretty much 100% sure of that.) If a single mid-ranking Soviet officer hadn't doubted what he was seeing on his radar screen, civilization would have ended and you sure wouldn't be reading this. If Hitler hadn't survived his injuries i WWI . . . You get the idea.
In other words, nobody knows anything, and there isn't always deep meaning in momentous occurrences. Or, to put it in technical terms, shit happens.
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