False complacency

Now that all of the states are relaxing restrictions, and the daily rate of new reported infections has trended down nationally, the zeitgeist seems to be relief and a feeling that this is all getting behind us. Sorry to be a downer, but we aren't there yet. The national top line is driven mostly by the success of New York, New Jersey and Southern New England in wrestling down the worst outbreak. These states kept restrictions in place longer and have been very careful and measured in relaxing them. We've learned over time about the most important measures -- avoiding crowded indoor spaces, masks, keeping distance. Here's what Connecticut's epidemic looks like so far.


The continuing decline is in spite of increased testing. The positivity rate has been going down which is very important, as have the number of people hospitalized, which is the hardest indicator of success. Now that the prevalence is low, we have the capacity to trace and tests contacts of new cases and contain any mini-outbreaks that might occur. That makes careful, measured re-opening possible.

A friend reports that his friend in Carolina says people aren't taking this seriously. They're gathering in large groups, not wearing masks, and generally ignoring it. Here's what the South Carolina epidemic looks like.


You can ignore the little downtick at the end, that's because of limited reporting on the weekend. Yes, they're doing more testing, but the increase in the incidence rate is considerably larger than the increase in testing. Let's have a look at Arizona.


Remember how the warm weather was supposed to put an end to this? Arizona has been having record heat. Florida has been cooking the books -- the death rate from unspecified pneumonia has mysteriously spiked -- but here's what their incidence rate looks like.


Yes, they're testing more but again, not by nearly enough to account for this. They're now back above their previous high point back in April. Texas:


Again, ignore the little downtick at the end, that's Sunday. There are more states I could show you but the point is, the epidemic is waning in some places and waxing in others. As a result, the national incidence rate has been essentially flat for the past month -- they're cancelling each other out.  Will there also be new cases linked to the recent mass demonstrations? Probably. The good news is they're out of doors, most people are wearing masks an in many cases they're keeping their distance. But sure, there has to be some transmission. So the question is, will people in those states whose (Republican, as it happens) governors removed restrictions before the epidemic was really under control end up thinking it was worth it for the draft beers and haircuts? We'll see.

Note: Moral evaluation of protests is not a scientific question. People can agree about the relevant science and have various opinions about what is justifiable or appropriate. This is a point I find I continually need to repeat. I like to refer to the formulation of Jurgen Habermas, the "three worlds" of verifiable validity claims. The first is the realm of inter-subjective reality, which includes two sub-categories, that which we immediately apprehend -- what we witness and experience -- and the realm of what we can deduce from indirect evidence, including the practice of science. The second realm is the realm of values and moral judgments. Scientists, generally, have no greater or lesser claim to validity in this world than do other people, nor if they are well behaved do they claim to. The third world is what we personally like or dislike, enjoy or find aversive. That is what it is. Habermas maps these onto the Platonic ideals The True, The Good, and The Beautiful.  Scientists do not undermine their claims to first world expertise by asserting a moral judgment that you happen to disagree with, nor will other scientists necessarily agree with them or disagree with you. In order to engage in rational discourse, you must recognize such category errors and refrain from making them.

Sunday Sermonette: It's complicated

Yes, this is more complicated than it might appear. Incest taboos are pretty much a universal in human culture, with or without specific religious proscription. Incest is against civil law in all modern societies, although standards do vary about cousins. As far as I can tell sexual relations between cousins are not forbidden here. Since the Israelites are polygamous, however, some of these additional instructions are needed, and they're probably a very good idea to prevent jealousy and family violence. However, the real point of much of Leviticus 18 is to slander the other inhabitants of Canaan and justify the Israelites' expropriation of their land. It is quite unlikely that they tolerated incest in fact. Same with the Egyptians but they are mentioned only for the sake of the fictitious setting in which this takes place. I'll talk about Molech when we get there. Note that with a couple of exceptions, this is addressed to men. They are assumed to have agency in sex.

18 And the Lord said to Moses, ² “Say to the people of Israel, I am the Lord your God. ³ You shall not do as they do in the land of Egypt, where you dwelt, and you shall not do as they do in the land of Canaan, to which I am bringing you. You shall not walk in their statutes. ⁴ You shall do my ordinances and keep my statutes and walk in them. I am the Lord your God. ⁵ You shall therefore keep my statutes and my ordinances, by doing which a man shall live: I am the Lord.

⁶ “None of you shall approach any one near of kin to him to uncover nakedness. I am the Lord. ⁷ You shall not uncover the nakedness of your father, which is the nakedness of your mother; she is your mother, you shall not uncover her nakedness. ⁸ You shall not uncover the nakedness of your father’s wife; it is your father’s nakedness. ⁹ 

Note that "your father's wife" in this context is not your mother, who has already been named. This refers to your father's other wives. "It is your father's nakedness" probably means that she is your father's sexual possession, not that having sex with her would be equivalent to having sex with your father. The euphemism here makes this a bit hard to interpret, but I'm pretty sure that's the idea.

You shall not uncover the nakedness of your sister, the daughter of your father or the daughter of your mother, whether born at home or born abroad. ¹⁰ 

Again, this presumably means half sister. Note, however, that Abraham married his half sister. 

You shall not uncover the nakedness of your son’s daughter or of your daughter’s daughter, for their nakedness is your own nakedness. ¹¹ You shall not uncover the nakedness of your father’s wife’s daughter, begotten by your father, since she is your sister. ¹² You shall not uncover the nakedness of your father’s sister; she is your father’s near kinswoman. ¹³ You shall not uncover the nakedness of your mother’s sister, for she is your mother’s near kinswoman. ¹⁴ You shall not uncover the nakedness of your father’s brother, that is, you shall not approach his wife; she is your aunt. ¹⁵ 

Since seems to make it more clear that "the nakedness of your father's brother" means his sexual possession, i.e. your aunt. Homosexuality is dealt with separately below.

You shall not uncover the nakedness of your daughter-in-law; she is your son’s wife, you shall not uncover her nakedness. ¹⁶ You shall not uncover the nakedness of your brother’s wife; she is your brother’s nakedness. ¹⁷ You shall not uncover the nakedness of a woman and of her daughter, and you shall not take her son’s daughter or her daughter’s daughter to uncover her nakedness; they are your^[a] near kinswomen; it is wickedness. ¹⁸ And you shall not take a woman as a rival wife to her sister, uncovering her nakedness while her sister is yet alive.

Note that this does not say that a man cannot have sex with his daughter. Maybe it's just an oversight. Nor are first cousins off limits.

¹⁹ “You shall not approach a woman to uncover her nakedness while she is in her menstrual uncleanness. ²⁰ And you shall not lie carnally with your neighbor’s wife, and defile yourself with her. ²¹ 

Although adultery is here defined as a sin committed by the man, we shall see later that women get the worst of it.

You shall not give any of your children to devote them by fire to Molech, and so profane the name of your God: I am the Lord. ²² 

For centuries, people read this as referring to a purported Canaanite God named Moloch, to whom children were sacrificed. Modern scholars doubt this, however. In the first place, as we have mentioned Biblical Hebrew lacks vowels. MLK, which is transliterated here as Moloch, usually means malek, "king." There is no evidence anywhere outside of the Hebrew Bible for a Canaanite God called Moloch; nor is there evidence that human sacrifice of any kind, let alone child sacrifice, was practiced in Canaan. There are a few possibilities here. One is that this is another slander against the Canaanites. Another is that "devote them by fire" refers to a purification ritual, not actually burning them, which actually seems very likely. And that leaves the additional possibility that MLK is not a God at all, but that this is rather some sort of civil ceremony; or that MLK is in fact Yahweh, and this is forbidding a particular ritual, not the worship of another God. Some scholars believe that MLK and YWH are the same entity.

You shall not lie with a male as with a woman; it is an abomination. ²³ And you shall not lie with any beast and defile yourself with it, neither shall any woman give herself to a beast to lie with it: it is perversion.²⁴ 

Note that lesbianism is not explicitly forbidden. Line 24 is the only of these commands directed at women, so that is a notable omission. 

“Do not defile yourselves by any of these things, for by all these the nations I am casting out before you defiled themselves; ²⁵ and the land became defiled, so that I punished its iniquity, and the land vomited out its inhabitants. ²⁶ But you shall keep my statutes and my ordinances and do none of these abominations, either the native or the stranger who sojourns among you ²⁷ (for all of these abominations the men of the land did, who were before you, so that the land became defiled); ²⁸ lest the land vomit you out, when you defile it, as it vomited out the nation that was before you. ²⁹ 

 Again, clearly, the real point of all this is to justify the Israelite's expropriation of Canaan. It is very unlikely that the Canaanites did not have similar proscriptions.

For whoever shall do any of these abominations, the persons that do them shall be cut off from among their people. ³⁰ So keep my charge never to practice any of these abominable customs which were practiced before you, and never to defile yourselves by them: I am the Lord your God.”

Footnotes:

1. Leviticus 18:17 Gk: Heb lacks your

Yes, I really did get this e-mail

You would need an IQ below room temperature to be taken in by this, which I think is the whole point. At least if I've been specially selected to advise the Resident they ought to know my name. They know their supporters are idiots and they treat them accordingly.

CONGRATULATIONS - You have been formally selected to join the Trump Presidential Honor Roll in recognition of your unwavering support and commitment to President Donald J. Trump.

Mr./Ms.,

President Trump has always been able to rely on you as a dedicated supporter, which is why we are proud to offer you the exclusive opportunity to join the Trump Presidential Honor Roll.

As a member of the Honor Roll, President Trump will be relying on YOU to advise him throughout the coming months on the proper course of action when countering the Left’s LIES and deceptions. When he needs guidance, HE’LL TURN TO YOU.

Joining President Trump’s Honor Roll is absolutely paramount if we’re going to secure another FOUR MORE YEARS and keep our Nation out of the hands of BIG GOVERNMENT SOCIALISTS, and that’s why we are calling on YOU to step up and accept the offer TODAY.

The Honor Roll is a select group and we can only guarantee your spot for the NEXT 3 HOURS before we release it.

Please contribute ANY AMOUNT in the NEXT 3 HOURS to join the Trump Presidential Honor Roll. >>
 

TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL HONOR ROLL

SUPPORTER: michael_barton_laws@brown.edu
ACCOUNT NUMBER: 18250263 - 2020
DEADLINE: NEXT THREE HOURS
HONOR ROLL STATUS: MISSING

CONTRIBUTE $42

  CONTRIBUTE $250   CONTRIBUTE $100   CONTRIBUTE $50
  CONTRIBUTE $42   CONTRIBUTE ANY AMOUNT

President Trump really needs you on his team as a member of his Honor Roll. When the Left comes for us, we want to be able to show them the list of Patriots who are proud to fight for THEIR PRESIDENT!

We’ll be finalizing the updated roster soon, and we want to make sure YOUR NAME is on there for everyone to see.

Please contribute ANY AMOUNT in the NEXT 3 HOURS to join the Trump Presidential Honor Roll and to get on the roster.

Thank you,

Team Trump 2020
 

CONTRIBUTE $42

Update

A while back I discussed a study published in The Lancet that found that Covid-19 patients given hydroxychloroquine had an elevated death rate. The Lancet has retracted the study because of doubts about the underlying data. This could be a major scandal because there are suspicions that the company that provided the data perpetrated a fraud. We'll keep you posted.

That said, many other studies have found no benefit and substantial risks from the drug. Our basic evaluation of it should not change. Here are two new studies in BMJ, Second one here, and an accompanying editorial, that find it is useless and likely harmful. As the editorial says,

[P]oliticians with no expertise in science, medicine, or public health, supported by certain media, have picked up on the use of antimalarials as magic pills for the covid-19 pandemic. Rick Bright, former director of the US Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, was moved from his post after resisting calls for widespread immediate dissemination of such drugs. . . .

Physicians and patients alike are desperate to use any possible drug for otherwise untreatable covid-19, and there is considerable political pressure as well. Hundreds of clinical trials of potential treatments for covid-19 are now registered on clinicaltrials.gov. While inpatient treatments such as remdesivir, convalescent plasma, and immunomodulators are undergoing formal clinical trials, testing of outpatient treatments lags. The few currently registered trials for outpatients are of interventions including pegylated interferon λ (by single subcutaneous injection), oral favipiravir, and oral camostat mesylate, with clinical and virological outcomes. And, of course, there is hydroxychloroquine, the unproven and probably harmful drug that the US president is currently taking for post-exposure prophylaxis.

So let's be patient and let the researchers do their work, which unfortunately takes time. Don't listen to the fantasies of ignorant idiots.

Thinking of buying a gun, are you?

It's well established that firearm ownership is a risk factor for suicide. In fact it increases the risk by about three times according to the best previous estimate. Actually it is clear that you're far more likely to shoot yourself than you ever are to use a firearm in self-defense. But it's hard to establish the true magnitude of a risk in the population, especially when there are so many other factors to consider. Previous studies have had limitations that impede confident generalization.

Well, researchers have now published a study using a huge prospective cohort, with 12 years of follow-up. That's a powerful design. In California, all lawful transfers of firearms must be made through a licensed dealer. This includes gifts and private sales. Obviously some people acquire guns illegally but it's presumably a relatively small number and that doesn't really affect any conclusions about legal gun transfers. So the researchers had a complete record of every time somebody in California legally acquired a gun. They also had access to the California voter registration database, which enumerates every adult known to be alive in California (presumably not including undocumented people, again largely beside the point) and it shows when people leave the state and move in. And of course they had access to death certificates.

They followed more than 26 million people for an average of almost seven years. I won't go into the details of the analysis but they accounted for as many potential confounders as they could. Of people who had not previously owned a gun, the rate of suicide by firearm was 8 times as high among those who acquired one as among those who did not. The rate of suicide among women who acquired a gun was 35 times as high. Rates of suicide by other methods were similar among gun owners and non-gun owners: gun suicide was not replacing other methods. They answer other possible objections but you can read it yourself if you are determined not to believe this. They conclude:

[G]eneralizability outside California is unknown. California has stricter gun laws than many other states, including universal background checks, a waiting period, and various prohibitions on firearm purchasing by people with severe mental illness.⁵⁸ Our results may underestimate the association between handgun ownership and suicide in states without such safeguards.

Fifty-nine people were killed in the mass shooting in Las Vegas in 2017, the deadliest in U.S. history. Approximately the same number die each day in the United States from suicide by firearm. Many of these deaths are preventable. Our study bolsters and extends the message from previous research: ready access to firearms, particularly handguns, is a major risk factor for suicide. Health care providers and policymakers should be aware of this risk. This information is also important for current and prospective firearm owners seeking to weigh the risks and perceived benefits of ownership.

Yo, Peckerhead, I encourage you to purchase a firearm. You might consider the Sig Sauer catalogue.  

I recommend the RXP 320 Full Sized, which offers a smooth, crisp trigger to make any shooter more accurate, an intuitive, 3-point takedown and unmatched modularity to fit any shooter and any situation. Its full-size frame is ideal for target shooting, home defense and any scenario where shootability and sighted accuracy are of the highest priority now joined with a 6MOA SLIDE MOUNTING OPTIC. This modular, striker-fired pistol features a full-size grip, full length slide, ROMEO1 PRO, and Suppressor Height Contrast Sights. Available in 9mm. Safety features include a striker safety, disconnect safety. 

You should also consider buying the Speer Gold Dot LE Duty 9mm Luger Ammo 147 Grain Jacketed Hollow Point ammo. 

I don't think this will be of much use to you hunting deer or turkey, but I guarantee you if you want to kill the demons living in your head, it will be 100% effective.

St. John's, Lafayette Square

I have lived in D.C. for two separate periods, first working for Ralph Nader and then for the Institute for Social Justice. The second time I lived within walking distance of the White House and I was often in Lafayette Square. For those of you who don't know the south side of the White House grounds is extensive, but the north side of the building is close to Pennsylvania Ave. and Lafayette Square is a public park on the other side of the street. Obviously, it is more or less perpetually a site of protest. St. John's church is on the north side of the square, opposite the White House.

On Monday night the church's pastor, Gini Gerbasi was hosting several clergy and lay people, many from other churches and other denominations, who were providing water and snacks to protesters, and offering a place for respite. They connected with a medical team from Black Lives Matter who they allowed to set up an aid station on their grounds. Here is Rev. Gerbasi's account of what happened.

There were of course many journalists present, and they all confirm her account. The protest was entirely peaceful. Then, just as the White House resident was delivering a speech threatening to invoke an 1807 law to unleash the military on U.S. citizens, federal law enforcement agents attacked the protesters in the square with tear gas, rubber bullets, and truncheons, then they attacked  the priest and her colleagues and drove them from the church  -- yes, they drove the priest from her own church with tear gas -- so that the resident could walk across the square and pose for a photograph. This act was illegal, but that's largely beside the point. Rev. Gerbasi resorted to all caps:

I literally COULD NOT believe it. WE WERE DRIVEN OFF OF THE PATIO AT ST. JOHN'S - a place of peace and respite and medical care throughout the day - SO THAT MAN COULD HAVE A PHOTO OPPORTUNITY IN FRONT OF THE CHURCH!!! PEOPLE WERE HURT SO THAT HE COULD POSE IN FRONT OF THE CHURCH WITH A BIBLE! HE WOULD HAVE HAD TO STEP OVER THE MEDICAL SUPPLIES WE LEFT BEHIND BECAUSE WE WERE BEING TEAR GASSED!!!!  . . .

The patio of St. John's, Lafayette square had been HOLY GROUND today. A place of respite and laughter and water and granola bars and fruit snacks. But that man turned it into a BATTLE GROUND first, and a cheap political stunt second. I am DEEPLY OFFENDED on behalf of every protestor, every Christian, the people of St. John's, Lafayette square, every decent person there, and the BLM medics who stayed with just a single box of supplies and a backpack, even when I got too scared and had to leave. I am ok. But I am now a force to be reckoned with. 

Oh yeah -- he's a hero to millions of "Christians." I am an atheist, but I was raised a Christian. My uncle was the pastor of Trinity Church in Branford, Connecticut, where my mother taught Sunday School. I was taught a version of Christianity that is utterly opposed to violence, oppression,  and arrogance;  and affirms the worth and dignity of every person.

34“Then the King will say to those on his right, ‘Come, you who are blessed by my Father; take your inheritance, the kingdom prepared for you since the creation of the world. 35For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, 36I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.’

37“Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? 38When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you? 39When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?’

40“The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’

And there's this. That's an Australian news camera operator.

That's what a Christian man ordered so that he could be photographed holding a Bible. 

Outrage

We've all seen it. Four police officers slowly tortured a man to death, for no reason other than sadistic enjoyment, in front of a crowd of onlookers, while being videotaped. Obviously they thought they were entitled to do that, and would face no repercussions. It's understandable Minneapolis erupted in protest. Obviously something is profoundly wrong with the police culture there. The head of the police union is a white supremacist who spoke at a Trump rally, so yeah.

But, you may ask, why are protests breaking out all over the country? After all, this was just one incident in a Midwestern city, what does it have to do with New York or Boston or San Francisco? That should be easy. Police have had a license to murder black people and they do it, a lot. That is a manifestation of a deeper and wider moral disease in our national culture, the continuing legacy of one of the two great original sins of the nation. The important difference today between the expropriation and genocide of the indigenous people of the country, and slavery, is that there aren't enough indigenous people around any more to even make their complaint heard, but it's of the same essence, white supremacy.

It's the first of the month so you should be able to read Charles M. Blow's column, and I suggest you do. Here's my pull quote but do read the whole thing.

The protests are not necessarily about Floyd’s killing in particular, but about the savagery and carnage that his death represents: The nearly unchecked ability of the state to act with impunity in the oppression of black bodies and the taking of black life.

It is an anger over feeling powerless, stalked and hunted, degraded and dehumanized. It is an anger that the scenes keep repeating themselves until one feels exhausted and wrung out. It is an anger over feeling that people in power on every level — individual officers as well as local, state and federal government — are utterly unresponsive to people’s calls for fundamental change and equal justice under the law and equal treatment by it.

Now, is there a danger that these protest will ignite Covid-19 outbreaks? Sadly, there is. But read Ranu Dillhon's twitter feed on this. (He's a Harvard M.D. and a community health advocate and innovator.) He notes that Black Americans are 3 times as likely to be killed by police as white Americans; and also more than 3 times as likely to die of Covid-19. These are poisonous fruit of the same tree. If lives are already in danger, if you're already in constant fear, you might as well take risks to save people. There is a time to rise up and take power over your fate.