Contingency Management

 Here's a long read from Barry Ritholtz. It's an interview with Brian Klass, author of Fluke: Chance, Chaos and Why Everything We Do Matters. It's transcribed by machine so there are some weird mistakes but you can pretty much figure out what they really said. The key point is that we tend to think that history makes sense -- that we can discover the causes of events and use our understanding of the past to foresee the future. Basically, that isn't so, or certainly not in the way we tend to think it is.

In fact, some of the most noteworthy events in history depended on coincidences, minor contingencies, weather. Think of the destruction of the Spanish Armada by a storm, or more recently the aptly named Anthony Weiner sexting an underage girl shortly before the 2016 election, and the FBI investigation discovering copies of some of Hillary Clinton's emails on his computer. Come to think of it, the New York Times's obsession with said emails probably counts as well. Of course, unless you adhere to Answers in Genesis, you already know that you're only reading this because a giant meteorite hit the earth 65 million years ago, wiping out the dinosaurs and making way for the mammals.

 

I draw your attention to this because if Joe Biden had not suffered some sort of neurological problem between February and last week, as I must admit appears to be the case, we would be having a completely different political discussion right now. If the timing had been different -- say it happened six months earlier, or not until November -- the situation would also be completely different. The fate of the world should not depend on such stochastic events, but it does. 

All of which also means we need to keep in mind that a lot can still happen between now and November. Orange Julius is actually considerably more demented, but his cultists can't see it or don't care. But as he continues to deteriorate, it could start to matter. (I note that he hasn't been seen in public for a few days. It might not mean anything but we'll see.) So let's all calm down for now, and see where this goes.