The Long Emergency: It isn't just climate change

I'm still sketching out the basic challenges facing humanity, in broad strokes. Last week I presented the history of human population in the past 2000 years and a very basic primer on climate. But there are much broader issues of resource depletion. Some people have expected bigger catastrophes sooner than they have actually happened, and it's perilous to make very specific predictions, but we're at the point now where we aren't just making predictions, we're observing what's already happening.

Here's the basic problem:



If 3 billion people are going to  achieve a standard of living comparable to that of a typical North American or European, we will have to triple our consumption of natural resources. Or maybe not. Perhaps we can ameliorate the problem by reducing the depredations of the few very rich people.



That could help, but it won't be enough. The surface area of the planet, in case you didn't know, is finite:



Of the earth's habitable land surface, 50% is already dedicated to agriculture. Of that, 3/4 is used to feed livestock. We can't cut down any more forest without accelerating the mass extinction that is already happening, and with it, climate change. Basically, we cannot expand the extent of agricultural land.



Agriculture requires water:



So why aren't we starving already? Many people thought we would be by now but it turns out there was a technical fix, at least for a while, called the Green Revolution. Improved crop varieties yielded more per acre:




But that's over. The laws of physics and chemistry put a limit on plant productivity. And by the way, this is consuming a huge amount of fossil fuel as well. Nitrogen fertilizer is required, which is made by extracting nitrogen from the atmosphere using natural gas. But there is a solution, even though many of you aren't going to like it. In fact, I have found that many people get absolutely furious when I try to tell them this. Don't get mad, just listen. Next week.