The Long Emergency: You are what you eat

I'm two days late this week because of Memorial Day, and a very busy day yesterday, but we're here now. Last week we briefly reviewed the carrying capacity of the planet regarding getting protein and calories into humans, and concluded that we've already exceeded it. I guess we're screwed, right?

Actually no. There is a solution. But whenever I comment on a progressive blog where somebody has posted a recipe for beef Wellington of leg of lamb, I incite a hysterical mob accusing me of gratuitously insulting the host, ideological fanaticism, and trolling. This is something most people really, really, really do not want to hear. Well hear it now.



"Pulses," in case you didn't know, means beans and peas. Eat pulses instead of beef and we multiply the carrying capacity of the planet by 100. It's actually better than that because legumes (of which pulses are an example) pull nitrogen out of the atmosphere and put it into the soil, so we don't need the fossil-fueled Haber process. Unfortunately, people in affluent countries are accustomed to eating a lot of meat, and poor people aspire to it as a symbol of attainment of the middle class. They get very offended by suggestions that they should adopt a more plant-based diet. I'm not entirely sure why, maybe it's consciousness of guilt? Anyway what we're doing now is growing a lot of soybeans and maize* and feeding it to cattle, in the process diluting it by 100 times. That's just idiotic.

There is another important element of the solution, which is obviously limiting the human population. Ultimately it will have to be reduced, and that's generally regarded as difficult or even impossible because it means a higher ratio of relatively dependent old people to young people, and that would purportedly place an intolerable burden on the work force to support  all of us geezers. Guess what! It isn't so. Here's the relationship at the national level between women's educational attainment and fertility.



If women are educated, they have fewer children. The linearity of the relationship is as strong as it ever gets. And educated women are much more likely to be in the work force, and are more productive. In other words, if we make full use of the talents and energy of half of humanity, we have fewer children but we don't have to end up with less productivity as a result.

So raise the status of women around the world, eat your pulses, fruits and vegetables, and you give humanity a shot at a future. There's a lot more to do, obviously, but this means there is hope.

*Americans call maize corn, but that word means any species of grain in the rest of the English-speaking world.

Update: A reminder, if you want your comments published, you cannot comment as "anonymous." If you just want to communicate with me without being published, okay, but it's going to be fairly uncommon that I make use of the input directly on the blog. It might happen, but don't expect it. Otherwise, choose a handle.