Busting a myth

A common right wing trope is that illegal drugs are coming across the southern border, carried by illegal immigrants. You may even have seen the political ad featuring people climbing a wall wearing backpacks, implying that they were what are called "drug mules." The whole thing was, of course, faked. I have written here before that this is not true, that is not how illicit drugs come into the country, but now there is a very rigorous study proving it. Unfortunately, unless you have institutional access, you can only read the abstract, which is not very informative. (NBER used to be open access, this is apparently a new policy.) But I'll tell you what it says. Here are two key paragraphs:

In this paper, we show that legal trade is a key factor driving fentanyl supply by documenting a relationship between international imports and fentanyl overdoses. Illicit fentanyl is produced abroad (Pardo et al. 2019). However, there is little information on how it is smuggled into the U.S., with the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) emphasizing the roles of Mexican gangs smuggling fentanyl across the Southwest border and the use of mail packages from China (DEA 2019; 2021). We assess the empirical relationship between imports and fentanyl overdoses at the state level, with the idea that supply frictions result in overdoses disproportionately occurring near smuggling  locations.3 Specifically, using CDC mortality data and U.S. Census import data
for 2008-2020, we show that there is a positive relationship between states’ imports per resident and drug overdose death rates that begins in 2013. . . . 

 

Results show that states with above- and below-median imports have similar drug overdose
trends in the first five years of the sample period (2008-2012). Their drug overdose rates diverge sharply thereafter; by 2017, drug overdose deaths per resident are approximately 40% higher in states with above-median import levels than in other states. These differences, which persist through 2020, are driven by fentanyl overdoses. Our regression estimates show that 10% more imports per resident is associated with a 5.5% increase in opioid deaths and an 8.1% increase in fentanyl deaths over the 2017-2020 period. There is a similar relationship between imports and fentanyl seized by local police, which is a complementary measure of drug market activity.

 

The paper is 35 pages long, not counting numerous figures and tables. You'll have to take my word for it that they cover every base and meet every objection. Fentanyl is not being smuggled into the country by drug mules crossing the border illegally. That is not what is happening. It is concealed in legitimate cargo being imported through ports of entry, mostly coming by sea. (Note that much sea-borne cargo is shipped on to inland destinations and the containers are not opened or inspected until they get there, so the effective ports of entry aren't just New York and New Jersey or Los Angeles, but wherever the container is actually going.) Some also comes by air, and by land from Canada and Mexico, but again, concealed in cargo, not carried by illegal migrants, and obviously not by asylum seekers because the first thing they do when they get across the border is turn themselves in. 

I hope this clarifies matters.