Map of life expectancy at birth from Global Education Project.

Monday, June 29, 2020

The Decline of the West

There are probably as many explanations for our multiplying and synergistic crises as you have the neural connections to process, but what holds the whole sociological monstrosity together is antirationalism and pseudoscience. Today, Anthony Fauci took note of polling that says 27% of Americans would likely refuse to get a Covid-19 vaccine were it to become available. Natch, they're mostly Republicans, conservatives, and evangelical Christians. And these are the same people who didn't believe the epidemiologists who said this was going to be a big problem in the first place, and in many cases still don't, which is why Texas, Florida, Arizona, South Carolina and several other states are in big trouble. And there's climate change, air pollution -- racism is in fact a pseudo-scientifc belief.

Which brings us to this interesting piece in Nature (hat tip to PZ Meyers) about widespread belief in archaeological pseudo-science. The main nonsense they focus on is the supposed lost civilization of Atlantis, and visits to earth in ancient times by extraterrestrials.

For those of you who don't know, Atlantis was a fictional invention by Plato, mentioned in two of his dialogs as part of an allegory about the hubris of nations. Historians, philosophers and literary scholars understood that the story was imaginary until the 1900s, when various dilettantes and cranks started treating it as real. The idea that earth was visited in ancient times by ETs seems to be a staple of certain cable TV channels that purport to be about real history or science.

What these frankly bizarre beliefs have in common is that they are fueled by the assumption that the architectural and other technological achievements of non-European civilizations could not have been possible without assistance from either Atlanteans or little green men. Archaeologists who have sought to publicly debunked these claims have faced harassment and threats. And this is a subset of a broader problem: people who simply do not have critical thinking skills and respond to assertions that challenge their preconceptions with every sort of logical fallacy and personal vitriol, rather than trying to marshall facts and logic.

Let's be clear. The Mayans developed their civilization on their own.

It's completely off topic and in fact I have never said anything specifically about the Black Lives Matter organization (which includes as members only a small proportion of people who use the slogan). But here is their actual platform. If you want to avoid brain damage, do not read the New York Post.

5 comments:

Bob Bachtell said...


Being wary of a rushed vaccine is not an irrational reaction after the swine flu debacle of 1976. I'll let you take the new vaccine and, after a few months if you're not in a wheelchair, I'll consider it safe enough for me.


Cervantes said...

It is correct that it is extremely important that they don't rush the vaccine, and you're right about the swine flu debacle. As Trogen et al say in the new JAMA:

COVID-19 has created intense concern and uncertainty
in the US and throughout the world. There are immense
public and political pressures to develop a new
vaccine, a process that typically takes years, not months.
But as history warns, these pressures must not supplant
rigorous scientific practice. Proceeding stepwise
through the phases of clinical trials is the ethical standard
for investigations involving human research participants. Adherence
to the scientificmethod is the onlyway to safeguard against a
SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that is ineffective, orworse, carries unacceptable
adverse effects.
Failing to abide by standards of safety and scientific rigor during
theCOVID-19 crisis will fuel the argument thatphysicians and scientists
cannot be trusted.Vaccination rates, which are declining due
to widespread concern about visiting clinicians’ offices, could further
decrease. The US could see resurgences of many vaccinepreventable
illnesses, and inevitably, massive increases in avoidable
deaths and irreversible outcomes.
There are, however, reasons to hope that these scenarios will
not come to pass. In response to past failures, vaccine development
in the US is subject to increased regulatory oversight designed
to protect against substandard practices. Technological advances
permit the rapid communication of adverse events in clinical
trials, and the understanding of the genetic factors influencing immunologic
responses has increased. To proactively address safety
concerns, these and other safeguards should be clearly communicated
to the public during the vaccine development process.

If political pressures cause a vaccine to be rushed into use without sufficient safety testing, I'll be the first to agree that people might have legitimate reason to refuse. But let's hope that doesn't happen.

Bob Bachtell said...


How will you determine that it was rushed without sufficient safety testing or not?
We pretty much have to take the government's word for it. That's what happened last time.

"You first" is the only rational course of action.

Cervantes said...

I disagree. If you want to know how I personally will determine, I will read the peer reviewed reports of the vaccine trials and evaluate their quality and the robustness of their findings. So will thousands of public health experts. I and the rest of us will state our opinion at that time. If there's serious controversy among credible experts you will know it. You don't have to take the government's word for it. And if "you first" is the rational course of action, believe me, if the vaccine is safe and effective the first thing you want to do is get it.

I'll let you know my view of it at the time.

Don Quixote said...

Hope that time comes. 36 years and counting since folks began working on an HIV vaccine.

Most likely, David Ho or someone else will find a way to treat it. And while we're on the subject, recent studies seem to show that COVID-19 disarms immunity in the human body in some similar ways to HIV. Some flu! We're on a long road here and we don't know where it leads. On the positive side, something had to happen to jolt humanity awake to its impending demise. COVID-19 was just the catalyst crystallizing a supercooled pond in what seemed like a peaceful woods ... but is actually a roiling, fractured steamship on a heating ocean.